The economic grief has dragged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese down to his while rewarding Opposition Leader Peter Dutton for his constant focus on the cost of living.
![Voters show little enthusiasm for their choices at the next election when given an open-ended question to say what they like about Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.](https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_300%2C$height_150/t_crop_auto/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/6b9f1af67eb754238ac8c237a3027099ea638613)
Voters show little enthusiasm for their choices at the next election when given an open-ended question to say what they like about Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.
If the past five months are repeated over the next five,Labor will end the year with a primary vote that makes an election victory impossible.
Time and again,the Labor primary vote has slipped in the Resolve Political Monitor to levels that seemed unthinkable to the government after the last election. Albanese took power with a primary vote of 32.6 per cent nationwide – dangerously low by historical standards,but his government has even less support today.
Labor passed a sobering milestone in March when its primary vote fell to 32 per cent. Now it is 28 per cent. The electorate is fracturing. Labor may hold power with preferences from the Greens,but nobody can be sure about the calculations for the next election. The old assumptions about success – Labor won power in 2007 with a primary vote of 43.4 per cent – are out of date.
Albanese argues,rightly,that many governments fall into a slump in the polls and recover by election day. Dutton,meanwhile,. Everything hinges on the economy,and the latest Resolve Political Monitor shows how hard this has become for the government.
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One startling fact is that most Australians have not even noticed the single biggest policy decision by the government this year – the move in January to reshape the worth more than $300 billion over a decade.
The cuts only took effect on July 1,so it is still too soon to tell whether households feel the benefit from changes worth $17.87 a week for someone earning $50,000 a year. But the latest Resolve Political Monitor shows 57 per cent of voters have not noticed the cuts.
And why should they? Real wages are lower than before the pandemic.. The markets do not expect interest rates to fall until March next year. Consumer confidence is at recession levels.
While real wages have edged higher in recent months,Labor needs more time to win back voters. No wonder Albanese dismisses the idea of an early election. Many Australians do not want a race to the ballot box either:55 per cent want the parliament to serve its full term until next year,while 27 per cent want to vote earlier and the rest are undecided.
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Voters show little enthusiasm for their choices at the next election when they are given an open-ended question in the Resolve Political Monitor to say what they like about the two leaders.
One voter,for instance,was positive about Albanese:“He’s doing a good job in challenging times.” But another called him “all talk and no action” and a third was still fuming over the Indigenous Voice:“His decision to hold a divisive referendum convinced me never to vote Labor again.”
Given a chance to express their opinions about Dutton,some voters said they liked that he was “upfront” about.
“He comes across as strong and assertive,” one said. But others said he went too far with his tough language. “He can come across as offensive,especially to immigrant communities,” another said.
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On balance,most voters now prefer Dutton and the Coalition on core policies such as economic management,national security and immigration. This month,they also lead on jobs and wages,a historical Labor strength.
Other polls show a tighter political contest. The latest Newspoll inThe Australian,on June 30,had Labor on a primary vote of 32 per cent and the Coalition on 36 per cent. The Freshwater survey inThe Australian Financial Review on June 16 had Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 40 per cent.
The Resolve Political Monitor uses a different approach than some other surveys. It does not exclude “uncommitted” voters – a group that can number about 7 per cent of respondents – from the final results. This is because it does not give respondents the option of being uncommitted. Those who answer the survey can choose “other” instead of the major parties or independents,but they cannot say they do not know how they would vote.
This means the Resolve approach could pick up voters who are leaning towards the Coalition right now,even if they are not sure about siding with Dutton.
The prospect of a Coalition government still looks challenging,even with a primary vote of 38 per cent in this survey. The Liberals lost blue-ribbon seats to the teal independents despite having a primary vote ranging from 38 per cent in North Sydney to almost 43 per cent in Kooyong. The message,again,is that the old certainties are out of date.
But that howl of economic pain is real. Incumbent governments are hearing it around the world. The louder it gets,the greater the danger for Labor.
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