HoweverProf Portes replied:"Australia's trade with the EU is worth about 7.5% of Australian GDP. UK's trade with the rest of EU is worth more than 30% of UK GDP. Anyone with a basic grasp of economics (not@TonyAbbottMHR it seems) should spot the problem."
Former PM Tony Abbott's writing in UK pub magazine Wetherspoon.
The tweet also sparked a reply from Dmitry Grozoubinski,who was a negotiator for the Australian government at the World Trade Organisation in Geneva during the Abbott and Turnbull governments,and is now an independent consultant on international trade.
Grozoubinskireplied to Abbott:"Australia's exports to the EU are dominated by raw commodities and agricultural products for which it enjoys country specific quotas the UK won't get.
"There are few JIT[just-in-time] EU-Aus supply chains and no Ro-Ro[roll-on roll-off haulage truck] ferries between Perth and Rotterdam.
"You are embarrassing. Stop."
Grozoubinski pointed out that Australia has a specific deal allowing tariff-free lamb meat sales into the EU,another bilateral trade deal on wine that allows Australia to export wine in bulk and bottle in the EU,thus minimising tariffs,and is also negotiating a free trade deal with the EU.
He told theSydney Morning Herald andThe Age that the biggest difference was"proximity and the nature of trade".
"Australia and the EU sell goods and services to one another,"he said."The UK and EU make things together. If you slapped a hard border between Victoria and New South Wales overnight,it would be really disruptive."
Illustration:Matt GoldingCredit:
Abbott is on the advisory board of a pro-Brexit think tank in the UK,the Initiative for Free Trade,whose stated mission is"to recapture the moral case for open commerce"and make Brexit"a catalyst for a freer global trading order".
Grozoubinskihas used sheep meat as an example of a British industry that would be dealt a severe blow by a no-deal Brexit.
The UK's sheep sector employs 34,000 people on farms and more than 11,405 in allied industries,and more than 90 per cent of its sheep meat exports go to the European Union.
But if the UK leaves the EU without a withdrawal deal its exporters will have to pay EU import tariffs that would increase the price by about 45 per cent per kilo,making it entirely uncompetitive with New Zealand and Australian meat on the continent.
No deal would be "a disaster" for the UK's sheep sector,as it would be slapped with EU import tariffs.Credit:Jason South
"If you were a business and overnight you lost access to 99.7 per cent of your foreign customers,that would be a disaster,"said Grozoubinski."That’s what’s coming down the pipe."
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Professor Alex de Ruyter,from Birmingham City University's Centre for Brexit Studies,said the UK could be forced to drop import tariffs on food to prevent shortages and to cope with the abrupt change to its customs system.
About half the country's food is supplied by the EU,and new excises once the UK left the EU's customs union would require extensive new checks at the borders,but the UK's customs system would struggle to handle the extra work.
Under WTO rules,if the UK cuts tariffs for EU food it would then be required to offer Australia the same terms,meaning we could suddenly have a big,cheap new market for our lamb.
This would compound the damage to the UK's sheep farmers,who would find themselves out-competed by Australia and New Zealand,both on home soil and in their previous biggest export market – the EU.