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Christopher Pyne is ranked No. 5 on the list of cabinet seniority. He is Leader of the House,meaning he represents the government in the House of Representatives chamber.

He is the only member of the Liberal leadership team to have survived the tumultuous past decade. Oh,and he’s the second longest-serving member of the lower house.

In other words,this is not just any resignation three months out from a federal election.

Try as the government might to hose down suggestions ministers are abandoning a burning building,Pyne’s resignation removes one of the foundations to the whole edifice.

Let’s not pretend otherwise:if he thought the government was going to win,he would stay. So would Steven Ciobo,the other senior figure to announce his departure on Friday.

Pyne is the federal parliamentary party’s most powerful moderate and a skilled factional operator. His exit will be welcomed by some senior conservatives and could make a difference to the shape of the party in the next Parliament.

Christopher Pyne:The federal Liberal Party’s most powerful moderate and a skilled factional operator.Credit:AAP

As for the election,Pyne’s departure doesn’t just create the appearance of low confidence within the Coalition;it also materially affects its chance of holding a seat it can’t afford to lose. Pyne holds Sturt on a margin of 5.4 per cent. He’s had to fight hard to hold onto it in every one of the nine elections he has contested,and he often boasts about his personal vote and his tactical prowess during campaigns.

If that’s true,the seat is gone. Indeed,the sign that first tipped off Labor and others to Pyne’s possible exit was the leaking to theAdelaide Advertiser of an internal poll – seen as dubious – that showed Pyne way ahead of Labor 59-41. Heaven knows who could have leaked those numbers,but they allowed Pyne to claim the seat was safe and he could afford to go without letting the party down.

The latest departures also don’t help the general feeling of chaos. Of Tony Abbott’s 19-strong cabinet after the 2013 election swept the Coalition to power,just four are still there and plan to stay in Parliament – Scott Morrison,Mathias Cormann,Peter Dutton and Greg Hunt.

That is some churn.Linda Reynolds – capable as she is – will jump into the cabinet after less that five years in Parliament.

Then there’s the factional question. The moderates in senior ranks are now decimated. Gone are Malcolm Turnbull,Julie Bishop,Kelly O’Dwyer – and soon Craig Laundy.

Pyne was central. This is a huge generational change to the moderate wing of the party. Will it change the balance in the party in the long run? Others are going to have to step up.

There will be huge pressure on Trent Zimmerman,the New South Wales backbencher and factional leader. Simon Birmingham in South Australia is a good minister who exudes understated competence,but he is not a ruthless powerbroker in quite the way Pyne has been.

The moderates will also probably look to Victorian MP Tim Wilson.

It's going to make for an interesting next parliamentary term,whether they’re in government or opposition.

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