Yates,who is a former head of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation,is already in full campaign mode. He says the majority of Liberal voters he meets are not happy about the party's record on climate change and the influence of the hard right of the party. The independent candidate dismissesFrydenberg's record as a moderate who spearheaded the now-dumped National Energy Guarantee last year:"I'd argue he's had all the opportunity to stand up."According to Yates,Kooyong is "completely in play".
This week,Frydenberg posted a video to his social media accounts. Set to a stirring soundtrack,it is filled with local people singing his praises. Along with Elwood,there is a pharmacist,mental health worker,cafe and supermarket owners and groups that represent stroke patients,breast cancer sufferers and children with autism. There are kids at childcare,a netball player and a guide dog. There is even a group of nuns.
Josh Frydenberg hands out flyers to voters outside a polling station in 2016.Credit:Josh Frydenberg/Facebook
"Josh is our hero,absolute hero,"one woman says,while a local drycleaner wonders whether Frydenberg is the only cabinet minister to pick up and drop off his own shirts.
While there is an obvious self-promotion aspect to the film,the fact that so many people would appear on his behalf also points to his strong local links. He is known as one of the hardest workers - and networkers - within the government. This extends to the effort he makes in his electorate,which he has never regarded as"safe". This means there is no standing start ahead of the 2019 campaign and the unexpected entrants into the race. And yet,the fact that he made such a comprehensive video also suggests there is a level of concern. So too the Treasurer's requests to colleagues on Tuesday to retweet it.
"Just look at his behaviour,"says Burnside."He has taken time off to shoot a slick campaign video,just two weeks out from the most important federal budgets of his career."
Julian Burnside,the Greens candidate for Kooyong.Credit:Jason South
FrydenbergtellsThe Sydney Morning Herald andThe Age the video is about "giving people a snapshot of the community engagement that I've had". He also says he is not complacent about retaining his seat. "I'm very focussed on the campaign in Kooyong and delivering for my local community. I don't take anything for granted."
When asked about campaign spending in Kooyong,he says,"we'll spend money,just as the Greens,Labor and independents will."
Beyond the battle in Kooyong,the post-election period also looms. If the Coalition loses government,and Scott Morrison does not survive the aftermath,Frydenberg is seen as one of the main contenders for the Liberal leadership. If he can hold on to his seat.
Despite the high-profile challengers,political watchers still think Frydenberg will ultimately be safe. Australia Institute executive director Ben Oquist - who is a former chief of staff to Bob Brown - says Frydenberg's primary vote would need to knocked from 58 per cent to 45 per cent before he was in real danger of losing.
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"And while not impossible that is a big ask for someone who is popular locally,despite national Coalition failures on climate policy."
Election analyst Kevin Bonham agrees Frydenberg is likely to retain the seat once held by Robert Menzies."It seems like a big call,[Frydenberg's opponents] need an enormous swing."
But the extra attention required in the seat means one of the Coalition's key figures will not be as free to travel during the election. Given the government's plans to bounce from the budget,straight into the election campaign,the contest in Kooyong will have implications for the Coalition's overall efforts.
"It is fascinating in itself that the Treasurer in the lead up to the budget,on the eve of an election,has to be devoting infrastructure,emotion and finances for a fight that shouldn't be on anyone's table,"says Oquist.