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The sector is beginning to lose hope that student numbers will bounce back for semester two 2021.Credit:Steven Siewert

The National Tertiary Education Union estimates between 3000 and 3711 full-time equivalent job losses have been announced,but the numbers could reach 30,000 by the time the full impact of COVID-19 is felt.

"With casuals it’s even harder to estimate,they don’t announce anything,they let them go,” NTEU's national president Alison Barnes said.

In a letter to staff last week,UTS vice-chancellor Attila Brungs reaffirmed the university would lose up to $60 million this year and had seen an impact on jobs due to reduced teaching load.

With hopes of a hotel quarantine scheme for international students scuttled by the recent outbreak in Victoria,the sector is beginning to lose hope that student numbers will bounce back for semester two 2021.

Dr Brungs said UTS had predicted losses of between $80 and $250 million next year.

"The increasing likelihood of a significantly diminished autumn 2021 international student intake,and other worsening external factors,have led us to conclude that the impact will be on the upper end of that scale,likely $200m plus,” he said.

"Every month that passes without a pilot of the secure corridor for international students to return to Australia raises the likelihood our intake will be significantly diminished.

"The predicted revenue shortfall in 2021 and the flow-on effects to 2022 will result in a greater impact on staff positions in 2021,potentially even double the 200-250 FTE (full-time equivalent) estimate.”

After announcing almost 500 job losses,UNSW has begun the redundancy process. In an email to staff in mid-July,Sydney University vice-chancellor Michael Spence said he would give staff an update on what financial conditions mean for the university as soon as he could.

"The uncertainty over the international student corridor;government cuts to funding and proposed increase of fees;and the prospect of further outbreaks of the pandemic locally combine to produce a very challenging and unprecedented set of circumstances for universities,and we are not immune,"he said.

Ms Barnes said the job losses would be devastating."You’re talking about individuals losing their livelihood,their vocation,you’re looking at careers ruined,you’re looking at losing generations of early career researchers,"she said.

"We’re estimating across the sector,job losses of around the 30,000 mark. And this has terrible consequences for the individuals affected,but also for the fabric of our universities and generations to come.”

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