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The rail line is due to be completed in time for the opening of Western Sydney Airport in 2026.Credit:Brook Mitchell

The scathing assessment by the independent body found the business case was based on several flawed assumptions,including forecasts for the number of people who will move to live near the airport rather than the Central Coast or Wollongong.

“There is insufficient evidence that the economic,social and environmental benefits of the project would justify its costs,” the report said.

It has prompted Infrastructure Australia to not include the rail line in its list of the country’s priority projects.

The 23-kilometre rail line,which was a cornerstone of the Coalition’s 2019 state election campaign,is due to open in 2026. More than60 properties will be fully or partially acquired for the project,causing an uproar from small landowners in areas such as Orchard Hills.

Infrastructure Australia found only 18 per cent of the rail line’s benefits will be for public transport users. Instead,the majority of benefits “are from the value of land increasing”.

Many large landowners around the site of the airport and along the rail line corridor have made windfall gains from the value of their properties soaring.

The report found the business case is based on more than 60 per cent of the total project benefits coming from urban development early on,despite forecasting demand for the metro line to be relatively low for the first 15 years of operation.

The government has forecast low demand for the rail line in its early years,with passengers filling fewer than two of every five seats during peak travel periods in 2026 when it opens.

An artist’s impression of one of the six stations on the airport line.Credit:NSW government

Demand for the line from St Marys to the airport at Badgerys Creek is projected to rise to about 80 per cent of the line’s capacity by 2056.

The report also warned that the cost of building roads and other infrastructure to clear the way for the construction of homes and businesses was “not fully included in the project costs”.

The decision to build the line in a north-south direction was questioned in the report,which pointed to a 2018 scoping study that suggested alternate routes to the east may perform better.

“There was insufficient evidence in the 2018 study that a rail service for the north-south corridor would be the most appropriate option at this time,” it said.

The report highlighted that transport links needed to be bolstered in the city that will emerge around Western Sydney Airport.

But it warned there is “a material risk” that overarching plans for the so-called Western Parkland City vision would not be realised without more comprehensive funding.

The report’s release comes a day after two major design changes were revealed for the M12 motorway,which will link the M7 motorway to the new airport by 2026.

The cost of the M12 motorway has now risen from $1.2 billion in 2015 to more than $2 billion. The new variations will cost more than $280 million.

Transport Minister Andrew Constance was contacted for comment.

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