When Kelly was weighing up his future in 2017,North Melbourne offered him a staggering nine-year deal worth more than $10 million - essentially aBuddy Franklin-like contract that,Kelly - against his own financial interests - declined.
Then-coach Brad Scott met Kelly,whose father Phil is a past player with North and maintains Arden Street connections. There’s little doubt that North will be close to the front of the queue for Kelly this year.
Unlike the bulk of Melbourne clubs,the Roos will have the capacity to pay truckloads - they might have space to almost match the GWS eight-year amount (over whatever contractual period).
Would Essendon or Hawthorn make a comparable offer? The Bombers handed Kelly’s former teammate Dylan Shiel a six-year deal in 2019 and Kelly,at his best,is a clear notch above Shiel.
Dylan Shiel.Credit:Getty
The Hawks,historically,have been reluctant to offer long-term contracts,a policy that was bent for Tom Lynch,who preferred Richmond’s somewhat lesser offer to Hawthorn’s seven years.
It is hard to believe that St Kilda,on the prowl for Kelly in 2017,would find the space for him. Carlton,from what one can gather,have room for a barracuda only if they shift someone out,having spent about $1.4 million annually on Zac Williams and Adam Saad and with Patrick Cripps and Harry McKay coming of contract this year.
Melbourne,Richmond,Collingwood,Geelong and the Bulldogs won’t have sufficient room to accommodate Kelly,unless they’re prepared to shed players or slash wages. Or back-load to the point of no return.
Loading
Two other factors are at play in Kelly’s call:the midfielder’s form and that of his team.
In 2016-17,Kelly seemed on the brink of becoming one of the game’s top six players,a smooth mover with superb skills who could win the ball inside and outside the contest.
He hasn’t reached that projected level since,having suffered some injury setbacks - notably a groin problem that hampered him early last season.
GWS are backing him to play up to the level of the contract they’ve offered. This eight-year commitment is yet another example of the extreme measures required for GWS to secure their best players,having signed Stephen Coniglio (seven years),Lachie Whitfield (seven),Toby Greene (six) and Nick Haynes (five) to very long terms that Victorian clubs rarely entertain.
Kelly’s moderate form,relative to his talent - and the club’s disappointing results lately - raises the question of whether GWS would be better to avoid that eight-year option,given they’ve fallen from finals,lost key players and have to work out how they move forward (contending,refreshing?).
Whatever he decides,Josh Kelly’s call - and that of the club that signs him - will be a watershed moment for the competition.