The milestone,China’s highest quarterly growth figure since records began almost three decades ago,comes from a very low base. The country’s economic activity collapsed in the first quarter of 2020 as provinces went into lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The economic snap-back has been breathtaking with China the only major economy to record positive annual GDP growth in 2020,” said Commsec senior economist Ryan Felsman.
The recovery will be a key driver of Australia’s economic fortunes over the coming year. Despite the relationship between the two countries falling to historic lows over multiple diplomatic disputes,Australia’s $9-billion trade surplus in January was driven byChina’s demand for Australian iron ore. The value of exports to China increased by 21 per cent in December as the price of iron ore surged on the back of supply shortages.
The resource,which is used to make steel to build infrastructure,is likely to remain a secure export in the medium-term with limited alternative markets. But it is vulnerable to long-term shifts from climate change policies in China,competition from new mines in Africa and iron ore carriers from Brazil.
Oxford economist Stephen Hare said while he expected vibrant global economic growth over the coming years,the magnitude of commodity-demand growth wouldn’t be the same as during the turn of the millennium when China’s rapid urbanisation increased and powered the last economic supercycle.
He said market speculation had partially supported commodity price rises,along with positive vaccine developments and higher consumer confidence.