Modern warfare and geopolitical competition will be marked,not just by military action and conventional deterrence,but by“hybrid threats” – cyber attacks and data theft,disinformation,foreign interference,economic coercion,attacks on critical infrastructure,supply chain disruption,among others.
Submarines alone will not counter these threats – nuclear-powered or not – and analysis that only focuses on Australia’s future fleet (or France’s furious reaction) is missing the bigger picture about what AUKUS could and should mean. The alliance has been set up as an information and technology sharing arrangement that will focus on critical technologies such as,for instance,artificial intelligence and quantum.
Key to this will be efforts to foster deeper integration of security and defence-related science,technology,industrial bases and supply chains. The leaders’ statement doubles down on the importance of the Indo-Pacific,a region where “hybrid threats” are becoming far more pervasive – in large part because of the Chinese state’s increasingly assertive and aggressive behaviour there.
Nuclear-powered submarines will give our navy a future edge over adversaries. But far beyond maritime military matters,AUKUS could give Australia a strategic and technological boost that could last decades.
Few have grasped the enormity of the disruption coming our way as more and more new technologies continue to be deployed across the world. While governments grapple with foreseeing the full impacts and setting policy direction,there is a growing realisation that emerging and critical technologies will be extraordinarily important for societies,economies and national security.
This is making the race to master them a geopolitical issue. And nowhere is this race more contested than in the Indo-Pacific,which incubates much of the world’s innovation and has become a hotbed of strategic technological competition.