Both are stuck in that paradigm rather than considering an alternative:a middle power path for Australia.
The fiasco of the government’s mismanagement of the submarine contract with France – its $40 billion budget blowout,delays and uncertainty around Australian jobs – led me earlier this year to call for a rethink of the deal and consideration of other options. The AUKUS deal announced with the US and Britain last week,while astute as a defence-capability decision,has limitations. It is not a strategy inclusive of broader partnerships and its execution has alienated France,a partner in the region,and risks overlooking others such as Indonesia,Japan and South Korea.
It is only one defence element in what should be a much broader multilateral diplomatic,defence and development engagement in the Indo-Pacific. We need a deeper collaboration with our partners to prop up and secure the liberal,rules-based order on trade and security. I have called this a “fulcrum of middle powers” that works with enough strategic weight to prop up that order.
Keating is wrong when he argues the AUKUS submarine deal reduces our sovereignty and operational independence because it would bring us under the “command” of the US. This misunderstands interoperability. We buy equipment from all over the world,but this does not reduce our sovereignty. Interoperability allows our equipment to work with that of our allies. It does not tie us to their operational command.
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Keating also states that by strengthening our military capabilities we are accelerating an inevitable conflict with China. But the capability of our forces work so that the better they are,the more likely we deter other nations from conflict and channel them towards diplomacy.
It may be a coincidence that China announced its desire to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership immediately after the AUKUS announcement. In my view,we should take this as a good sign,as the potential of Australia’s greater capability leading another nation towards more diplomacy.