Across every reopening scenario,most hospitalisations and deaths would involve people aged 65 or older.
Loading
“Extending the[vaccine] rollout to younger children (for example aged five to 11) may help reduce case numbers,though there are not yet vaccines approved for those ages,” the report said.
Queensland’s Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said the modelling showed a worst-case scenario where 1200 cases a day would be seen by August next year after reopening.
“That is an average across the whole state. We will end up with clusters in different parts of the state,but we know how to respond to those because we’ve responded to those for the last 22 months,” Dr Young said.
She said she believed the state’s hospital system had the capacity both in emergency departments and ICU beds to handle a surge in case numbers putting strain on the system.
Health modelling expert James Roberts,one of the modelling’s authors from QIMR,said the modelling was only a guide to the reopening,and they had forecast a range of scenarios based on different starting points.
“The use of this modelling is to ask pointed questions about what happens if we do A versus B,” Dr Roberts said.
“You can’t run experiments on this,you need to use modelling for these sorts of questions,and this sort of modelling has been used around the world.”
Dr Roberts and his colleagues used the same methodology Victoria’s Burnett Institute used for its recent modelling,but he said there were key differences.
“The difference in Queensland is we don’t have an ongoing outbreak,and in fact the modelling doesn’t take into account what would happen if there was an outbreak before these reopening dates,” he said.
The modelling assumes public health measures known as TTIQ (test,trace,isolate and quarantine) would continue,but does not take into account the effect of any lockdowns placed on regions which have outbreaks.
It also assumed vaccination rates would eventually reach levels of over 95 per cent,as seen for other vaccination programs in Queensland.
“If hesitancy prevents Queensland reaching~92 per cent coverage of age 16 and over,results may be optimistic,” the report said.
- With Felicity Caldwell and Matt Dennien