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Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk,pictured at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre vaccination hub,has dispatched cabinet members on a week-long “vax-a-thon” ahead of the state’s planned reopening.Credit:Matt Dennien

Under scenarios run by the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute,which used similar methodologies to the Burnet Institute’s modelling in Victoria,daily infectionswould peak beyond 1200 by mid-2022 with vaccination rates at 80 per cent at the point borders opened.

The modelling assumes only testing,contact tracing,the isolation of positive cases and quarantine of their contacts were used to control the spread of coronavirus.

While Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young has said the “genuinely worst-case scenario” would also result in up to 400 people needing intensive care beds,below thesurge capacity of 600,the modelling shows ICU demand could push beyond the boosted figure with reopening at lower than an 85 per cent full-vaccination rate.

“ICU and hospital resources may come under severe pressure but not catastrophically so before control measures can be enacted,” the report states.

Modelling by the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute examines the effects of reopening Queensland’s borders at various vaccination targets.

The QIMR work also warns none of the figures factor in immunity waning in people who were vaccinated early,deemed to be a “serious threat” without additional control measuresor booster shots.

Such a situation could set daily infections beyond 2000 before Easter 2022.

Vaccines being approved for younger age groups,the use of lockdowns and other measures to control regional outbreaks,and vaccine mandates or business restrictions could significantly reduce the risks of reopening,the report states.

Health modelling expert James Roberts,one of the QIMR authors,said a faster rollout could also help lift vaccination rates before borders opened and was not factored into institute’s work.

“It’s a ‘let it run’ scenario,” Dr Roberts said.

The modelling does not factor in an outbreak before reopening,serious case spikes across the country,reducing compliance with testing,tracing,isolation and quarantine measures,along with vaccine hesitancy.

“If hesitancy prevents Queensland reaching[about] 92 per cent coverage of[people aged 16 or older],results may be optimistic,” the report states.

An October 8 update to the Melbourne Institute’s Vaccine Hesitancy Tracker suggests Australia could immunise at least 87 per cent of the population based on the first-dose uptake.

Queensland had the second-highest hesitancy rate behind South Australia,at 17.6 per cent.

The percentage of people “not willing to be vaccinated” was 8.5 per cent,with 9.1 per cent unsure.

Asked on ABC Radio National about the risk of lower vaccination rates in tourism centres such as Cairns and the Gold Coast,Deputy Premier Steven Miles said on Tuesday the focus was reaching people with only minor concerns. “We need to find ways to get them vaccinated,” Mr Miles said.

Victoria has managed give first doses to more than 88 per cent of its population over the age of 16. NSW and the ACT have surpassed 92 per cent. Queensland has reached 72 per cent.

No Australian jurisdiction without an outbreak,barring Tasmania,has managed to pass an 80 per cent first-dose rate.Only a handful of countries have reached 80 per cent full-vaccination rates.

Queensland government ministers headed to nine regional centres across the state on Tuesday as part ofa week-long “vax-a-thon”.

- With Stuart Layt

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