In a month’s time,Victorians who have received two doses of a COVID vaccine can expect to face few restrictions,bar having to wear a mask in select indoor locations such as on public transport,in hospital and aged care. But it’s a vastly different story for the unvaccinated.

On Sunday,Premier Daniel Andrews said those who hadn’t received the jab could visit other people’s homes and shop for the basics,but they would be barred from the vast majority of other venues.

“Whether it’s a bookshop,a shoe shop,a pub,cafe,a restaurant,the MCG,the list goes on and on. You will not be able to participate like a fully vaccinated person because you’re not a fully vaccinated person,” he said.

Epidemiologist Tony Blakely described the road map as a finely balanced see-saw that would need to be fine-tuned depending on case numbers.

But he warned that once 90 per cent of eligible Australians were double-dosed – and if infections had reduced significantly – “it would be unethical at that point to keep the people who are unvaccinated out of society.

“But if case numbers go back up again,then you might need to turn it back on,and my prediction is that we’ll be turning the vaccine certificate system on and off for at least a year.”

The head of the epidemiological modelling unit at Monash University,James Trauer,said he supported the government’s heavy emphasis on vaccination in its updated road map,but questioned the need to commit to vaccine mandates extending into next year,particularly for teenagers.

“Hopefully[by then] we’ll just have the epidemic under better control and we won’t need to do that.”

From late November,those aged over 11 who are not vaccinated will be excluded from all but basic retail services,barring them from dining out,visiting a hairdresser or going to major events,for example. However,the unvaccinated would be able to take part in small funerals,weddings and religious gatherings.

COVID-19 is not as dangerous in children as adults. Associate Professor Trauer said,in his mind,the risk was not high enough to justify the mandates for this age group.

“It is a bit of a judgment call,but I think you need a pretty clear public health rationale to mandate vaccinations for 12 to 15-year-olds,and I don’t think we have that,” he said.

Burnet Institute director Brendan Crabb said he thought it was OK to give more rights to the vaccinated while Victorian remained in “such uncertain territory”,noting that there were countries he couldn’t visit without a yellow fever immunisation.

But,like the other experts,he said the policy should have a time limit.

“As we start to see how much we’ve got things under control … obviously it’d be good,as soon as possible and as much as possible,to move away from differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people,” he said.

Responding to the latest update to the road map,Professor Crabb said it was important that coronavirus numbers were kept lowwith the help of non-vaccination measures,including improved ventilation and allowing contact tracing systems to function properly.

University of South Australia epidemiologist Adrian Esterman agreed that other measures were needed and questioned the government’s loosening of the mask mandate.

“If it were up to me,I’d keep mask-wearing for a long time,potentially for a couple of years,” he said.

“We can’t just rely on vaccines – it has to be vaccines plus some public health measures. Mask aren’t expensive,they’re easy to use and they do a brilliant job of stopping infection.”

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