The pandemic,global supply chain blockages,semi-conductor shortages,an energy crisis,a surge in iron ore prices,implosions in its property development sector and a structural shift in policy away from China’s version of capitalism towards a more socialist model generated an over-lapping series of disruptions and threats.
Beijing’scrackdown on billionaires,the fintech and social media sectors,the private education sector,ride-sharing and even entertainment created fear and uncertainty and wiped out billions,if not trillions,of value and wealth. Externally,the trade and geo-political tensions between the US and China began spreading elsewhere as the Biden administration re-established relationships with its traditional allies that had been sundered by Donald Trump.
The performance of China’s economy has reflected the policy upheavals and external volatility. It started with a bang as the economy bounced back from the pandemic. First-quarter GDP was 18.3 per cent higher than for the same (pandemic-affected) quarter of 2020. In the June quarter,however,it slowed to 7.9 per cent and then to (by China’s standards) a meagre 4.9 per cent in the third quarter. It may be below four per cent in the December quarter.
While GDP growth for the full year will probably come in around 8 per cent,Xi Jinping’s decision to prioritise structural change over growth,the continuing impacts of the pandemic,increased trade and geopolitical tensions and a divergence between the performance of its and other major economies are likely to see economic growth in 2022 of less than six per cent.
The Chinese authorities have started to respond to the quite dramatic slowdown in their economy.
Last week,as its major property developers started to formally default on their debts – China Evergrande,with more than $US300 billion of liabilities,was declared a defaulter by Fitch Ratings last week – the People’s Bank of China injected $US188 billion of liquidity into the banking system by cutting the amount of cash its major banks must hold in reserve.
While the economic meeting maintained the tough line Beijing has taken towards the property sector the emphasis on stability suggests that the waves of “reforms” may be over and fiscal stimulus is back on the agenda.
With the property sector forced to de-leverage (with foreign creditors bearing much of the pain) and the perceived financial and security risks in the tech sector addressed,the new focus on “common prosperity” could mean some loosening of monetary and fiscal policies to put a floor under growth and contain the damage being wrought within a property seductor that contributes up to 30 per cent of China’s GDP.