Ukraine and the wider world still view the separatist territory as Ukrainian,after rebels seized parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in the wider eastern Donbas region in 2014. NATO and the US have been quick to point out this latest move is a “further invasion” of Ukraine by Russia:in 2014,Putin seized on revolution in Ukraine (that toppled its then pro-Kremlin president) as a pretext to annex the country’s Crimean Peninsula for Russia.

The Kremlin has long backed separatists in Donbas and had operated in the region covertly. (The eight-year conflict has claimed more than 14,000 lives,including 298 passengers on commercial flight MH17,shot down in 2014.) But its decision to now formally recognise and move into the rebel regions is an explicit rejection of the shaky ceasefire agreed in 2015known as the Minsk agreements,which had been touted by some diplomats as a framework for current negotiations,despite escalating violations in recent days.

On Wednesday,US President Joe Biden noted Putin had since claimed these breakaway states extend even further than the areas under separatist-control – into Ukrainian-held land. “He’s setting up a rationale to take more territory by force in my view ... to go much further,” Biden said. “This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Australia’s Prime Minister,Scott Morrison,called a national security meeting on Wednesday and announced that Australia would be in “lockstep with the US and UK” in imposing an initial tranche of sanctions on Russia. “The invasion of Ukraine has effectively already begun,” he said. “This invasion is unjustified,unwarranted,unprovoked and unacceptable. Russia is now at peak readiness to conduct a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,which is likely to occur within the next 24 hours.”

What sanctions have been imposed?

Australia has announced it will initially impose measures including travel bans and targeted financial sanctions on eight members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation as well as sanctions on the separatist regions of Ukraine.

The US will freeze the assets of two Russian banks in US jurisdictions and will apply targeted sanctions against Russian elites with close links to Putin,while the UK has applied sanctions against five Russian banks and three Russian billionaires.

The EU will impose sanctions to prevent Russian institutions from accessing EU financial and capital markets and will freeze the assets of three banks linked to the separatist regions as well as extending trade bans on Crimea.

It will also apply travel bans and asset freezes on the 351 members of the State Duma,Russia’s lower house,who voted for Russia’s recognition of the separatist regions,and on 11 other Russians who proposed the recognition.

The US,UK,EU and Australia have said further tranches are expected in the event of further military incursions by Russia.

And the Prime Minister has said Australia is working on improving its cyber defences in anticipation of a possible “counter response” from Russia following the announcement of the sanctions,although he said there has been no evidence so far of any cyber retaliation.

Germany,meanwhile,has stopped its certification of Russia’s new $11-billion Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline,so the completed pipeline cannot begin to operate.

What are the signs of war?

The US says its intelligence shows Russian forces at the Ukrainian border have swelled to190,000,andare planning to attack Kyiv. Moscow has warships in the Black Sea and has been running military drills with close ally Belarus (just a three-hour drive from Kyiv).The New York Times reports that military vehicles and soldiers without insignia have been seen parked on highways near Rostov-on-Don,a Russian city about 100 kilometres from the border with Ukraine. Several cyber-attacks on the Ukrainian government have been blamed on Moscow.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says all the evidence suggests Russia is planning “the biggest war in Europe since 1945″,positioning not just soldiers but blood supplies and other essential equipment beyond that used in training drills.

Last week,Russia claimed it was pulling troops back from the border,after repeated official denials it planned to invade. By Thursday,Russian-backed separatists were shelling the Ukrainian side,including a kindergarten. In a pre-recorded video message,they claimed Ukraine was planning an imminent attack on civilians,which Ukraine denied. People were put onto buses for evacuation to Russia,as several explosions rocked the city of Donetsk,though there were no reports of injuries or independent confirmation of the circumstances.

Experts say the escalation of violence in the east is exactly the kind of“false flag”,or Russian sabotage operations,that the West has been warning would be used by Moscow to sow violence in the region andcreate a pretext for war. Putin has already made false claims that Ukraine is carrying out a “genocide” against Russian speakers in the east,many of whom Russia has now issued passports to,and the Russian authorities have announced an investigation into supposed “mass graves” of the victims of Ukrainian forces.

In 2014,when Putin sent his “little green men” – soldiers without Russian insignia – into Ukraine to seize Crimea,they also did so under the pretence of defending Russian speakers against a revolution they labelled a “fascist coup”. When it sent troops into Georgia in 2008,waves of cyber attacks and disinformation also hit first.

On Wednesday,US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced he was pulling out of an upcoming meeting with Russia’s foreign minister as Russia had now rejected diplomacy,though the US left the door open to future talks if Moscow pulled back from a full-scale invasion.

What does Putin want?

With Russia at its back,a clutch of NATO countries to the west and the Black Sea on its doorstep,Ukraine has become the epicentre of the Kremlin’s fight to keep control of eastern Europe.Ukraine has close ties to Russia,but has been an independent nation since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It wants to join a growing list of countries in the region to become part of the NATO alliance.

Putin still sees Ukraine as part of Russia and experts say he wants to restore some of the glory of the Soviet era,extending his “sphere of influence” in eastern Europe to keep a buffer between Russia and the West. He questions why NATO,which formed after World War II to safeguard peace in Europe (and contain the Soviet Union),has continued to expand since the Soviet Union broke apart. He doesn’t just want NATO to disavow talk of Ukraine ever joining its alliance,he wants them to pull back their forces from eastern Europe too,effectively rewriting the old boundariesagreed in 1997.

Until those demands are met,Russia has so far said it will not deal with the US on other issues both sides haveflagged they are open to negotiating on,such as greater restrictions on nuclear weapons in the region.

On Tuesday,Putin blamed NATO for turning Ukraine into a theatre of war and called the US-led alliance an existential threat to Russia.

US Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield told the UN Security Council,“Putin wants the world to travel back ... to a time when empires ruled the world”. He “has torn the Minsk Agreement to shreds,” she said,and is “testing how far he can push us all”.

What about Ukraine?

Shortly after Putin’s speech on Tuesday,Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of wrecking peace talks and ruled out making any territorial concessions,though he stressed Ukraine was still committed to diplomacy. Ukraine is expecting “clear and effective” steps from its allies to act against Russia,he said. He has been calling for immediate sanctions by the West and now wants an emergency summit of the leaders of Ukraine,Russia,Germany and France.

“We are not afraid,we won’t cede anything ... It’s not February 2014,but February 2022,” Zelensky said,referencing Ukraine’s weak army eight years ago when Russia took Crimea.

Ukraine’s civilian militias have swelled in recent weeks and Western countries such as the US and Britain have been sending in weapons as part of a “porcupine” strategy to make Ukraine so spiky with threats it could become too difficult for the larger Russia to swallow.

On Wednesday,Zelenskyy said he was activating some reservists,but not ordering full mobilisation as Russia’s threat grows on his borders.

This story was published on February 22 and has been updated to reflect developments.