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South Australia Premier Steven Marshall and SA Labor leader Peter Malinauskas.Credit:NIne

Just two hours after polling booths closed Mr Marshall,who had been governing in minority after three MPs had to move to the crossbench following the 2018 election,the government is headed to the opposition benches.

Mr Marshall is the first incumbent in Australia to lose an election since COVID-19 arrived on our shores. That matters. Yes,Donald Trump lost the presidential election and other leaders around the world have done so too,but this result could signal the script has been flipped in Australia.

Yes,Australians still want certainty in uncertain times. And yes,Mr Marshall was in a precarious position.

But like state governments across the country,the moderate Mr Marshall was generally thought to have done a good job in handling COVID-19.

It wasn’t enough. A blowout in ambulance waiting times,and his funding promise for a basketball stadium and convention centre rather than hospitals – which Labor hammered – have hurt him.

So too did the performance of the “I agree” opposition leader in Mr Malinauskas,who has set the template for opposition leaders across the country during these COVID times.

It’s no accident that NSW Labor opposition leader Chris Minns,federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese,and even the revived Victorian Liberal leader Matthew Guy –who is trailing well behind the Andrews government in the polls – are looking more competitive now too. They’ve learned the lesson from the SA Labor leader.

Australians want constructive opposition leaders rather than opposition for its own sake during a global pandemic.

The fates of former Victorian Liberal leader Michael O’Brien and Queensland Liberal leader Deb Frecklington underscore that point.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will face voters next,in May,and he’s well behind in all the published polls. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews will go to the polls in November,then NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet in March 2023.

Of the three,Mr Morrison looks the most vulnerable – though the other two leaders will feel uncomfortable too.

Mr Morrison has time,and a federal budget,to turn things around. There is only one Liberal seat,Boothby,in South Australia that is regarded as in play. It probably won’t fall and it almost certainly won’t decide the election.

But that’s not the point.

What this result signals is that as we learn to live with COVID,voters are willing to risk voting governments out and the COVID bump to incumbents has been diminished.

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