Independent candidates Allegra Spender,Zoe Daniel,Kylea Tink,Sophie Scamps and Kate Chaney.Credit:Jessica Hromas,Elke Meitzel,Wolter Peeters,Nick Moir,Tony McDonough
In the past,the major parties have seen independents as a passing nuisance that fades over time,like the Australian Democrats. Their only concern was their preference flow. Times are indeed changing;unless the major parties change,these independents are here to stay.
Few thought that former prime minister Tony Abbott would lose his seat to the pro-climate action campaign of Zali Steggall in 2019. Her win shocked the political establishment and confirmed that the old political rules no longer apply. There are no safe seats any more.
I was stunned this week to see the number of election signs for independent candidate Allegra Spender around the Wentworth electorate outnumbering those for Liberal member Dave Sharma. The “Allegra” campaign clearly has a large cohort of local volunteers. Like Steggall,Spender is focused on renewable energy,smart jobs and “ending corruption in politics”.
Spender,Steggall and fellow independents Kylea Tink in North Sydney and Nicolette Boele in Bradfield represent a particular threat to Scott Morrison. The prime minister’s re-election chances are heavily dependent on NSW,which has just under a third of House of Representatives seats. The ALP holds a number of marginal seats in the state and the Coalition is hopeful of making up possible losses in other states in NSW. This strategy will collapse if the Coalition loses seats which were once regarded as safe.
Independent Zali Steggall speaks to her constituents in Warringah on Tuesday.Credit:Jessica Hromas
Based on polling and the campaign to date,if the election was held tomorrow,the most likely outcome would be a minority Labor government. A lot would depend on whether independents were elected in the NSW seats of Bradfield,Mackellar,North Sydney,Warringah,Wentworth,and the Victorian seats of Casey,Goldstein and Kooyong,andwhich of the major parties those candidates supported.
With four weeks to go,anything is possible and much will depend on Anthony Albanese’s campaigning and the allocation of preferences from the Greens,One Nation,and the United Australia party. Clive Palmer may spend $70 million on advertising trying to buy votes but the UAP’s vote will be insignificant. At best his mischief will only assist the Coalition with preferences. How impactful those preferences will be remains to be seen.