Sichuan’s power shortage shows that hydropower,usually seen as the most stable renewable source,is still not as reliable as coal,according to Hanyang Wei,an analyst with BloombergNEF. That raises doubt about how smoothly China can shift away from its reliance on fossil fuels,given that wind and solar are even less stable,said Wei.
Following last year’s crisis,which triggered widespread electricity curbs to factories throughout the country,China started to plan more coal power. Under heavy government pressure,coal mines have boosted output by 11 per cent this year.
Li Shuo,an analyst with Greenpeace East Asia,said the situation in Sichuan is reminiscent of power outages in Hunan province in late 2020,when severe cold weather reduced wind generation and sent power demand soaring for heating. The government responded with a slew of coal-power plant approvals in Hunan,Greenpeace found in a report published last month.
“I hope the answer they draw from this is not more coal power plants,but I fear that might be where they are headed,” Li said.
Sufficient coal stockpiles have kept the crisis from spreading to other parts of China,but it’s been of little help to Sichuan,where hydropower makes up more than three-quarters of generating capacity.
China’s biggest power crunch since last fall has led to suspension of power supply to many industrial customers through August 25. Companies including Toyota and CATL have already closed plants in the region for several days. Top polysilicon maker Tongwei Co. said its plant has been affected,further tightening the market for the material key to building solar panels.
Some of the impact was felt in places outside Sichuan as well. The Bund waterfront in Shanghai turned off outdoor lighting,and Wuhan in central Hubei province halted its famous Yangtze river light show.
The current situation is expected to be less painful than last year as the strictest measures have largely been limited to Sichuan,which comprises just 5 per cent of the country’s GDP. Still,it could pose a risk to the sputtering $US18 trillion economy. Economists are already downgrading the nation’s growth outlook for this year to less than 4 per cent,well below the government’s 5.5 per cent target.
China isn’t alone in dealing with extreme heat this summer. High temperatures in Europe have contributed to the drying of the Rhine River,with levels at a key chokepoint falling as low as 30 centimeters,affecting navigability on the waterway. Droughts in India have caused rice planting areas to shrink by 13 per cent so far this year,threatening global food supply.
In Wuhan,the city where the coronavirus first emerged in late 2019,temperatures have routinely topped 40 degrees Celsius this summer. On a recent weekday,Luo Yi,a 26-year-old worker at a ferry port along the Yangtze,was trying to stay cool in the shade. His company had moved its floating port closer to the shore earlier this year to leave more room for shipping on the drought-shrunken channel.
“This is the hottest summer I can remember,” he said.
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At Heartland 66,one of Wuhan’s top luxury malls with outlets including Gucci,Prada and Tiffany&Co.,orders to reduce power consumption meant that shoppers had to walk down halted escalators. Air conditioners were operating at reduced rates,leaving food courts on the top floors sweltering.
The region may soon see some relief. Sichuan’s capital city Chengdu is forecast to have cooler temperatures and rainfall from Thursday,according to the China Meteorological Administration. Over the longer term,China and the rest of the world face increasing challenges from volatile weather patterns.
Near Hankou Beach on the Yangtze in Wuhan,the heat hasn’t stopped Wan and others from venturing out for a swim yet. Jiang Guangming,65,who’s been paddling in the river since he was a teenager,crouched in the water to avoid the sun beating down on his shoulders.
“The water would reach street level in previous years,” he said ruefully,looking at the wide,dry bank across the channel. “This year even the riverbed sand is exposed.”
Bloomberg
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