“He is the core leader,” said Dr Chen Gang,a Chinese politics and foreign policy expert at the National University of Singapore. “This is the message that he wants to send to the rest of the world.”
Chen believes China’s foreign policy ambitions will become sharper in Xi’s third term.
“China is going to be more active,and more assertive,” said Chen.
Taiwan looms as the major fault line of Xi’s next term. Xi did not escalate his ambitions for China’s democratic neighbour in his speech to the National Party Congress but his threats to take Taiwan “by force if necessary” have now become so commonplace that the inflammatory rhetoric has become boilerplate. Xi,as when extending his leadership into a third term,has shifted the Overton window to such an extent that what was once considered highly provocative is now accepted geopolitical reality.
In Beijing,he has spent the week preparing China for a new era of global instability. “Our country has entered a period of development in which strategic opportunities,risks,and challenges are concurrent and uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising,” he said last Sunday.
Data analysis of Xi’s 72-page work report by Clemens Ruben and Adam Ni from the research group China Neican shows almost three times more mentions of “security” in Xi’s 2022 report compared to 2017.
“At the same time,the mentioning of “harmony” a term that received much attention under[former president] Hu Jintao,plummeted. The frequency of “peace” also saw a decline,” said Ruben and Ni.
“For the Party leadership,the world has become more unstable and dangerous. Therefore,it is not surprising that the choice of words in the report reflects a heightened threat perception and a more pessimistic assessment of China’s domestic and international environments.”
The close reading of the text allows for some insight into the overall narrative of China’s opaque policy development. The outlook is not optimistic.
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“In short,the data suggests that over the last decade,security,technological self-reliance and ideology have become increasingly important to the Party leadership,” said Ruben and Ni.
Xi’s elimination of moderate Premier Li Keqiang and his ally Wang Yang and the elevation of his ideological chief Wang Huning as one of the senior members of the Standing Committee also means that foreign policy direction will be ever more concentrated around the president.
In Xi’s cabinet,foreign policy has been made by Xi and Wang Huning. It has been implemented by his top diplomats Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi,neither of whom were members of the Standing Committee. Yang,a tempestuous but experienced and well-regarded diplomat retired on Sunday. Xi’s new cabinet proteges Li Qiang,Cai Qi,Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi are former regional leaders who have limited to no foreign policy experience,putting Xi even more in control of China’s relations with the world.
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“Since the line of party-state separation will be further blurred,the Party will thus have stronger control over state apparatus,including Foreign Ministry,after the Party Congress,” said Chen.
That leaves Australia and other governments increasingly exposed to the whims of a determined and unpredictable Xi.
“Beijing’s more pugnacious approach to dealing with the world is probably a permanent feature as long as he is China’s top leader,” the Asia Society Policy Institute said in a briefing.
“Xi’s ambition seems palpable enough that he will pursue that objective even if it entails deepening the tensions with the West beyond “strategic competition”.
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The clues to Xi’s resolve are found in the policy manifesto he published this time last year.
“China must not be misguided or intimidated by foreign pushback,” he said.
“Making compromises to achieve one’s aim can only lead to more humiliating circumstances.”
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