Besides,some doubts remain that Xi will continue to push hard on reducing inequality in the face of drastic slowing growth. In the real estate sector,for example,the party has tried to curb the excesses of the property market. Yet,the real estate crisis this year has prompted the government to reverse that policy.

As for nationalism,the party has been trying to encourage it among the population since the 1990s. Xi is doubling down on this to reassert the party’s long-term goal of national rejuvenation. But the rising nationalism in China in the past three decades has been built upon the increasing prosperity of the country. In the past year,however,a sense of pessimism has replaced optimism,with people becoming less nationalistic as a result.

It’s not just due to the slowing growth. In China,the zero COVID policy has led to the resurging strong arm of the state. This is visible everywhere in the form of “Big White” – government officials who enforce quarantine and testing. Some of their more inhumane acts have been criticised in the country,from themistreatment of pets to forcing people to stay in their buildingsduring an earthquake. And then there was thequarantine bus crash in which 27 people died on the way to a quarantine facility.

While China’s citizens were once proud of the party’s focus on protecting lives early in the pandemic,the over-the-top compliance measures have led to outcries and distrust towards the competence of local officials and doubts about the COVID policy.

The problem is especially acute as there is still no road map to ending the zero COVID policy,be it vaccines or otherwise. The party official responsible for the chaotic lockdowns in Shanghai was promoted to the second most powerful position in the party. And the signal from the party congress is that the policy will continue. Meanwhile,COVID testing now accounts for up to 1.3 per cent of China’s GDP and 7.2 per cent of public revenue,making the mandatory testing regime harder to dismantle. Local governments will also find it difficult to give up the power and control they gained from lockdowns.

Living under constant uncertainty of lockdowns and the sometimes arbitrary enforcement of quarantine,more and more middle-class and wealthy citizens are considering leaving China. Those currently overseas are rethinking their plans to return. This can severely hamper China’s efforts to attract enough people to achieve its ambition of becoming a technological superpower.

While Xi was triumphant in getting his third term,the party is facing a challenging period ahead. In the future,we may look back on 2022 as a turning point when optimism shifted to pessimism.

Much depends on whether Xi Jinping can successfully diversify the party’s sources of legitimacy as the economy slows. Xi is right that there could be “high winds,choppy waters,and even dangerous storms” ahead – especially if the party cannot renew the social contract with the people.

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