Kevin Rudd warned a war between the US and China over Taiwan would case damage not seen since World War II.

Kevin Rudd warned a war between the US and China over Taiwan would case damage not seen since World War II.Credit:Bloomberg

“The next five years will very much shape and arguably determine the future stability of the Indo-Pacific region,” Rudd said in the JG Crawford Oration on Monday night,according to draft notes of his speech to the Australian National University.

“If we fail to navigate the next five years carefully,there is a grave risk that by the late 20s and the early 30s,we could well find ourselves on the cusp of armed conflict.”

A conflagration between China and the US over Taiwan would likely “be of an order of magnitude not seen since the Second World War”,Rudd said.

General Mark Milley,America’s highest-ranking military officer,made clear earlier this year the US would expect Australia to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with its ally if a war broke out over Taiwan.

Rudd welcomedthe three-hour meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali,saying both nations indicated they wanted to stop the freefall of the relationship.

US President Joe Biden with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit.

US President Joe Biden with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit.Credit:AP

“However,it would be foolish to conclude,at least from the Chinese perspective,that Xi has therefore shelved his aspiration to retake Taiwan,” Rudd said.

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“Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact,his language on Taiwan in the official readout from the Bali Summit is arguably more hardline than before.”

Xi remains on track to take action against Taiwan sometime in the late 2020s or 2030s,said Rudd,now the President of the Asia Society.

This means Australia needs to remain “clear-eyed” about the potential for military conflict with China,even as it seeks to improve relations in the short term.

“The only way to avert medium-to-long-term conflict is for there to be an effective US,allied and Taiwanese deterrence:militarily,technologically,financially,economically and,of course,in foreign policy and political terms as well,” Rudd said.

The biggest risk in the short-to-medium term is a “war by accident” between the US and China,Rudd said,describing it as a “real and living danger”.

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The best way for the superpowers to avoid an accidental war was through a policy of “managed strategic competition”,he said. This requires the US and China to agree on the “strategic red lines” that cannot be crossed without risking a military escalation.

Rudd said Australia’s challenges with China remain “formidable”,even afterPrime Minister Anthony Albanese’s breakthrough meeting with Xi last week in Bali.

Beijing’s previous freeze on all high-level political contact had been “unhealthy for all concerned”,he said,and the resumption of leader-to-leader talks under Labor was “no small feat”.

Beijing would be well-advised to drop trade sanctions on Australian goods worth $20 billion and release journalist Cheng Lei from detention as part of the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Australia next month,he said.

“That would pave the way for resumption of normal diplomatic discourse across all the substantive questions which currently confront the bilateral relationship,” he said.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news,views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley.Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

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