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Taiwan is increasingly looking like a regional flashpoint.Credit:Fairfax

Canberra once again found itself caught in the tangled political dilemma between Taiwan and China,with the Australian MPs delegation visiting Taiwan last week.

Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have placed the region in an unprecedented and uncertain standing. With a series of political events throughout this year,particularly the Ukraine-Russia war and US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan,China has demonstrated its strong determination to take over by escalating its military threats.

So,if China were to take over Taiwan by force,what are the implications for Australia? China’s assertive authoritarianism agenda has been disrupting the rule-based liberal order. Through human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong,territorial disputes in the South China Sea,and the trade retaliation against Australia,China has repeatedly ignored international law or values that have been upheld by the international community.

In addition,in recent years,China has intensified authoritarian control over its citizens through technology and its zero-COVID policy. As such,some political analysts and government officials in Canberra suggested that if China were to take over Taiwan,it would “catastrophically compromise” the stability of the region.

Since Australia is considered one of Washington’s most important and reliable partners,it is likely to find itself caught in a double bind if the US defends Taiwan as Joe Biden has publicly stated. Even if Australia chose not to get involved in militarily supporting Taiwan,it would still face potential economic sanctions from China. In fact,surveys from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and Lowy have indicated that almosthalf of Australians show willingness to send troops to defend Taiwan.

An airfield,buildings,and structures are seen on the artificial island built by China in Fiery Cross Reef on October 25,2022 in Spratly Islands,South China Sea.Credit:Getty

Moreover,the consequences of these conflicts always run deeper than the political aspects. The disruptions to the Australian economy and food security brought about by the Russia-Ukraine War would seem almost insignificant when compared to a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Experts have also projected that the military conflicts between Taiwan and China would cause $2.5trillion in economic losses for the US allies.

In particular,war across the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on vital global supply chains of several industries reliant on advanced technologies. As Mark Liu,the chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) told CNN,if China were to invade Taiwan,no country could avoid the chaos due to the interruptions of chip manufacturing. The world economy will be in another unpredictable situation as TSMC manufactures up to 92 per cent of advanced chips and owns 53.4 per cent of the pure-play foundry[semiconductor] market globally.

To be clear,heightened tensions between China and the US and Taiwan does not mean war is inevitable. Australia as a leading democracy and a middle power in the Indo-Pacific can still do its bit to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

Australia should consider Taiwan’s strategic importance to Australian national interests and security,and can engage with a number of allies both politically and economically,but also take practical actions. Canberra and Taipei should increase visits between government officials and strengthen economic ties with each other through bilateral or multilateral cooperation such as CPTPP. The cooperation could pressure Beijing pressure to not further risk its relationships with other countries and strengthen Taiwan’s economy so it could further invest in its own defence capability.

Canberra should also encourage more non-official collaboration between civil society organisations. For example,while Australia is still gearing up to counter foreign interference threats as well as different kinds of misinformation and disinformation,various civic groups in Taiwan have experience in countering these threats and could build a coalition with Australia to develop response strategies to digital threats.

Canberra might sometimes find itself caught in the dilemma of triggering Beijing if supporting Taipei,but it should recognise that Australia,like all the other countries,including Taiwan,should have the right to make decisions on its own fate. Caught between a rock and a hard place,Australia should continue to,as Penny Wong stated,“seek to co-operate where we can and will disagree where we must. And we will engage in our national interests.”

Elena Yi-Ching Ho is a cyber security analyst.

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