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Alan Tudge’s resignation triggers a byelection and a major test for Peter Dutton.Credit:

But it also gives the voters of Aston,in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne,a powerful say in the future of the federal parliament if they spurn the Liberals and choose an independent.

One doorway opened briefly after rumours of Tudge’s resignation spread on Thursday afternoon. Would Josh Frydenberg run after losing the seat of Kooyong to independent Monique Ryan at the last election? His return to parliament would give the Liberals a potential challenger to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and a vastly different proposition to voters at the next election.

It did not take long for that doorway to close. Frydenberg supporters dismissed the idea on the grounds that he has a good job at investment bank Goldman Sachs,is happy he can take his children to school and will not decide his political future until later in this term of parliament.

Frydenberg remains an alternative future for the Liberals. He wasmore popular than Dutton as a minister. His pathway back to parliament probably lies in the former Liberal stronghold of Kooyong for three reasons:he has a solid base of support in the seat;the only point of running is to return to government;and the Liberals cannot win government if they cannot reclaim Kooyong.

The head of the Liberals’ administrative committee in Victoria,former senator Greg Mirabella,sent messages to colleagues on Thursday afternoon asking them to stop speculating about who might run. Mirabella has been told it will not be Frydenberg.

An early decision will be whether the party powerbrokers will make the decision at their administrative committee or go to a preselection of party members. The first fight is between membership rights and central control.

Tudge was a conservative minister and Aston has a conservative Liberal base. Former state Liberal candidate Irene Ling is said to have the numbers after careful work in the branches over many years,but she has told people she is not running. Others name Roshena Campbell,a Melbourne City councillor and a columnist forThe Age,as a candidate worth backing. Another possible recruit,Katie Allen,is focused on winning back her seat of Higgins,which fell to Labor last year.

Who they choose will decide where the Liberals go next. It may be tempting for branch members to select a religious conservative but society is changing and the party needs to reach a broader base when it is under existential threat in former Liberal strongholds.

The Liberals are in a dire state in Victoria – and not only because Labor Premier Daniel Andrews trounced them at the last election.

The party received a primary vote of just 29.5 per cent at the last federal election across Victoria. That was down from 34.9 per cent at the previous election,which was down from 37 per cent at the one before that,which was down from 40.1 per cent in 2013. (This excludes the Nationals.)

The Liberals hid from this truth and cascaded from failure to failure like sunbathers on an air mattress caught in white water. Every time they were dumped they convinced themselves they had won because their party held on to federal power with narrow victories in other states.

Simon Holmes a Court,the founder of the Climate 200 group,isready to back a local champion in Aston after helping six “teal” independent candidates last year. The Liberal primary vote in Aston was 43.05 per cent last year and Tudge held on,but he did not have a teal challenger. The Liberal primary in Kooyong was 42.66 per cent and Frydenberg fell because Ryan knew how to scoop up a majority.

What will Labor do? Count on a contest. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wants to compound the defeat for the Liberals,so there will be a Labor campaign. Labor candidate Mary Doyle gained a primary vote of 32.6 per cent last year;the party won Higgins with a smaller primary than that.

Aston has not been a Labor seat since 1990. While byelections are often seen as verdicts on governments,this one is different because it is so early in the term and Albanese is riding high in the polls. Will the voters who turned against former prime minister Scott Morrison last year choose to swing back now that Dutton leads the Liberals?

There are several scenarios for Aston,but each has a common theme:the test for Dutton.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news,views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weeklyInside Politics newsletter here.

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