From left:Labor’s Mary Doyle,defeated Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell and Liberal leader Peter Dutton in Aston.Credit:Penny Stephens
But if the party satisfies itself with that as the full explanation for what happened,it’s heading for an even more intense world of pain.
For the Liberals,Aston is not just your average seat. It was the last remnant of the Liberals’ glory days in outer-eastern Melbourne,a Labor marginal they won first in the days of Bob Hawke and made safe under four Liberal prime ministers. It’s a mixed suburban area of working-class and middle-class,younger homeowners and retirees,commuters,light industry,small businesses and distribution centres,tradies,nurses,teachers,increasingly ethnically diverse.
While other seats such as Deakin next door fell for Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard,Aston stayed true. At last year’s federal election,the Liberal heartland seat of Higgins was swayed by Anthony Albanese’s entreaties. But not Aston.
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However,now,following months of negativity and delusional behaviour from the Liberals,it’s gone.
The numbers tell the story. The Labor primary vote on Saturday was 41 per cent – 8 percentage points higher than at the 2022 election. The Liberal vote was down 4 per cent. The Greens vote was also down. Since Scott Morrison’s 2019 “miracle” election win,when Alan Tudge was the Liberal member,the Liberal primary vote has fallen 15 per cent and Labor’s vote has gone up 11 per cent.
Why would that be? Let’s acknowledge that Campbell,who is the type of person the Liberals need to promote as a candidate,still managed to attract close to 40 per cent of the vote. She is an accomplished professional with experience of running for public office at the municipal level,a mother of young children,from an Indian background. On the ground,there were mutterings about the fact she lives in an inner-northern suburb while Labor’s Mary Doyle,a veteran eastern suburbanite,hails from just outside the electorate. But the Liberals’ troubles ran deep well before Campbell was preselected.