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Transurban,which operates CityLink,is looking to buy the EastLink tollroad.Credit:Wayne Taylor

Transurban would become the only toll operator in Victoria if successful – with EastLink joining its CityLink tollways on the Monash and Tullamarine freeways,the Bolte Bridge,and Burnley and Domain tunnels,as well as thenew $10 billion West Gate Tunnel when it opens in 2025.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has launched an inquiry into the proposed takeover,looking at whether the sale would let Transurban gouge motorists,impact competition between roads,or reduce competition from rival operators for future toll road projects.

Dr David Hensher,a transport economist at the University of Sydney who researches road tolling,said Transurban would become a monopoly operator in Victoria that governments would struggle to negotiate with and potential rivals would not bid against.

“When it comes to renegotiating the tolls,it’s almost impossible if those toll regime changes aren’t necessarily going to benefit shareholders,” Hensher said. “Other operators have adopted the view now,‘Why bother,because Transurban is going to win?’”

The Victorian government will operate tolls onNorth East Link,the $16.5 billion,26-kilometre road it is building between Greensborough and Bulleen but is expected to eventually sell it off,with Transurban previously expressing interest in taking it over.

The Victorian Transport Action Group (VTAG),an organisation that includes experts across transport and urban planing,said in a submission to the ACCC inquiry that the EastLink sale would consolidate Transurban’s already undue influence over transport planing decision in the state,as illustrated by its success pitching its West Gate Tunnel Project to the Andrews governmentin 2015.

The Andrews government granted Transurban a 10-year extension to operate CityLink out to 2045 in exchange for it funding one-third of the West Gate Tunnel construction costs,which subsequently blew out from $6 billion to $10 billion.

Transurban would reap an extra $4.7 billion from CityLink motorists over those 10 years,in addition to the $2.8 billion collected in tolls on the West Gate Tunnel itself,theVictorian Parliamentary Budget Office found in 2019.

“VTAG is most concerned that Transurban’s near monopoly power in Melbourne is allowed to distort transport and urban planning decision-making against the public interest,” VTAG committee member Jackie Fristacky said.

Dr Gerardine McLoughlin,an urban researcher and president of the advocacy group Transport for Everyone,said Transurban takeovers of EastLink and North East Link would give it control of key freight routes encircling the city,allowing it to push for planning decisions that funnel as much heavy vehicle traffic onto them as possible.

“We hand over control of the form of the city and the way that the transport system works,and exclude any alternative – so it limits the possibility of freight on rail,for instance,” said McLoughlin,who completed a PhD at Swinburne University on transport planing and decarbonisation.

A Transurban spokesperson said the company did not believe the ACCC would find its purchase of EastLink would reduce competition and welcomed the opportunity to “further invest locally in Victoria”.

In 2018,the ACCC ran an inquiry into the company’s plan to buy the WestConnex toll road in Sydney,giving it control of eight out of the city’s nine tollways,which focused on whether it would stop rivals bidding against it on future projects.

The watchdog eventuallywaved the sale through on the condition Transurban agreed to publishdetailed data about traffic on its roads to put potential rivals on an even footing.

Liberal transport spokesman David Southwick said Victoria “should not risk a monopoly on our toll roads” with the power to gouge consumers.

“Government must reassure that motorists will get value for money from any toll road takeover,now and into the future,” Southwick said.

Victorian Greens transport spokesperson Katherine Copsey said a sale would “line the pockets of Transurban at the expense of road users”.

The state government controls tolling rates on Transurban’s road and also has the ability to block it from operating EastLink under the concession signed with Horizon,which runs until 2043.

The sale comes as the newly elected NSW Labor government considers rewriting Transurban’s contracts over its eight Sydney tolls roads,after campaigning heavily on thefinancial impact borne by motorists. The ACCC is set to release its findings on June 8.

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