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A survey of voters’ responses to the federal budget,conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic,found while many people backed measures such as energy bill subsidies and new Medicare spending,only 31 per cent believed the overall package was good for them and their households.

The UBS research,which tracks more than 60,000 prices of grocery products at Coles and Woolworths every month,found fresh food prices had climbed by 9.9 per cent in the year to April,while dry grocery goods were up by 9.4 per cent.

Prices for breakfast staples such as dairy goods and spreads have climbed 13 per cent over the past year.

UBS analysts said the country was facing “materially high food inflation” and it was starting to affect the buying patterns of consumers,with some switching their branded favourites for cheaper,no-name or house brand alternatives.

“Dry grocery inflation is likely to remain elevated as pressures on commodities and the domestic supply chain including labour continue in 2023,although the frequency of price rises may reduce,” the analysts found.

“High inflation has driven a shift to private label[goods] at Coles and Woolworths … with this trend likely to continue given rising cost-of-living pressures.”

Food and grocery inflation is running faster than general inflation.

There are some positives. UBS reported that while chicken prices had climbed 10 per cent over the past year,they had eased 1 per cent over the past month. Pork prices had dropped 4 per cent since March after a 10 per cent jump since April last year.

Some supermarkets have already noticed consumers moving towards cheaper cuts of meat or bulk purchases of certain foods because of high prices.

UBS also noted fresh food inflation was likely to ease in the coming months as supply levels of many products started to improve. Australian beef production was up 15 per cent in the March quarter,reaching a three-year high.

In this month’s budget,the government forecast inflation to ease from 6 per cent at the end of 2022-23 to 3.25 per cent by the end of next financial year.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government was aiming to get wages growing to help offset inflation. Wage growth hit an 11-year high of 3.7 per cent in the year to the end of March.

He said inflation was starting to moderate,arguing the government had used the budget to help people where it could without increasing price pressures.

“We know that Australians are under the pump,we know that cost of living pressures are biting,and that’s why so much of the government’s focus over the first 12 months has been taking some of the edge off these cost of living pressures without adding to inflation,” he said.

But shadow treasurer Angus Taylor accused Chalmers of handing down a big-spending budget that was adding to inflation pressures.

“Middle Australia is hurting. The treasurer had one job in the budget,to reduce pressure on inflation,not increase it. The treasurer failed,” he said.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news,views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weeklyInside Politics newsletter here.

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