The Bureau of Meteorology has updated the chance of an El Nino occurring to 70 per cent.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen
The BOM updated its climate driver on Tuesday after three of four criteria that the agency measures exceeded El Nino thresholds.
The first three – warmer ocean waters accumulating near South America,international modelling,and a certain level of air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin over three months – have all occurred.
The last criterion is the weakening of equatorial trade winds,which is yet to happen. But the BOM’s models show that by August an El Nino event will be well under way across Australia,indicating that this final climate occurrence isn’t too far off.
Australians are familiar with the El Nino cycle over the Pacific Ocean. It’s one of the most important drivers of unusual weather over the entire globe. For most of Australia,El Nino brings dry weather,while its “sister” climate driver La Nina is wetter.
The last El Nino contributed to one of the worst droughts in Australia and the Black Summer Bushfires. Credit:Nick Moir
This means that winter in 2023 will be drier than average for much of Australia,resulting in warmer than average daytime temperatures. Night temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average,except for inland,eastern and central Australia.
The warmer winter could affectholidaymakers keen to hit the snow,with the season starting this week. In Perisher,some parts of the mountains have received healthy snow dumps,but others remain fairly green.