The options are to reset the campaign,redraft the proposal or reschedule the vote.
One of the authors of the Voice,Noel Pearson,admits the need to change the campaign. He wants a “refocus” that brings clarity to the argument. This suggests a reset,but it is not clear if the Yes campaigners can agree on what to do. Should they talk more about the recognition of First Australians or tell voters more about how the Voice would work and what problems it would solve?
The even harder decision is to redraft the proposal. Albanese has rejected the call from Liberal MP andYes supporter Julian Leeser to simplify the change by deleting a disputed section about executive government. This would not be enough to win over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and his party room,but that was never the point. The change might,in theory,allay concerns in parts of the community.
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That leaves the option of rescheduling the vote. Albanese has vowed to hold the referendum later this year,but the Yes campaign clearly needs more time. One of the likely referendum dates,October 14,is just four months away. The question for the government is whether it should hold the vote next year – a move that would look desperate but might be necessary.
Nobody can pretend the campaign for change is running smoothly. The Resolve survey is the first to show state-by-state results based on several months of data with the same questions put to thousands of voters since April,after the government finalised its wording (earlier surveys used slightly different wording).
The results are close because 51 per cent say they will vote No and the margin of error is 2.4 per cent,but the trend is unrelentingly negative for Albanese and the Yes campaigners. Labor voters are shifting against the proposal. The results from Newspoll,Essential and other public polls show the same trend.