A former personal chef turned leader of a rebellion uprising. An armed convoy of mercenaries headed towards Moscow. Vladimir Putin declaring an act of treason. The president of Belarus brokering the agreement to stand down.

It’s been a frenzied 24 hours in Russia,withPutin staving off a paramilitary insurrection on the Kremlin’s armed forces.

But what triggered the “march for justice”? Why now? How did it end so quickly? And what happens next?

The Wagner Group and its boss staged an uprising. What’s Wagner,again?

TheWagner Group is a mercenary force,an illegal private army of thousands of mainly Russian soldiers. It emerged in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and has fought in world conflicts from Syria to Sudan.

It is controlled by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin,who has been close with Putin for years – including serving him food at restaurants – but since the war in Ukraine has clashed with senior Russian leaders over their approach to military decisions.

While he has led a coup against Putin’s government,Prigozhin is no friend of the US or Western allies. He is the man who founded the troll farm that lodged a Russian disinformation campaign on social media in a bid to sway the outcome of the 2016 American presidential election.

But by May this year Prigozhin had serious issues with Russian leaders. In a video of himself filmed around dead bodies of Wagner troops,he criticised Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov,calling them worthless and corrupt because they could not supply his men with ammunition.

Prigozhin also took particular umbrage with the Russian Defence Ministry’s decision to no longer give him convicts from Russian prisons,instead choosing to send them directly into fight in the Ukraine war.

How does Wagner go from fighting for Putin to staging a coup against him?

On Friday,Prigozhin sensationally accused the Russian military of having killed 2000 of his fighters in an airstrike and vowed to punish them. He did not produce any evidence for this and the Russian defence ministry issued a statement saying Prigozhin’s accusations were “not true and are an informational provocation”.

But Prigozhin went even further,accusing the Kremlin of using lies concocted by Russian army leaders as the basis for invading Ukraine – the first time such statements had been made.

What happened next?

The FSB,a successor to Soviet-era spy agency the KGB,opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for the crime of calling for an armed mutiny,for which he faces up to 20 years in jail.

That did not appear to deter Prigozhin,who quickly mobilised 25,000 troops,leaving their location on the battlefields of Ukraine to cross the border into Russia.

They headed straight for the southern city of Rostov-on-Don,where they took control of the military there without spilling a drop of blood. A Putin spokesman called their actions “an attempted mutiny”. The convoy then travelled north towards Moscow,on the way shooting down a Russian military helicopter that had fired at them.

How close did they actually get to Putin?

The Kremlin had insisted that Putin remained in Moscow as the events unfolded,although there were unconfirmed reports that he may have left the capital for St Petersburg.

The “march on Moscow” moved north from Rostov-on-Don past the cities of Veronez and Lipetsk as it headed towards Moscow.

They got within 200 kilometres of the city before Prigozhin issued the order for them to halt the convoy’s progression to the capital.

Why get so close,only to abort the mission?

The simple reason given by Prigozhin was that he did not want unnecessary Russian blood to be shed in further conflict.

“Understanding ... that Russian blood will be spilled on one side,we are turning our columns around and going back to field camps as planned,” he said in a video.

The backdown was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko,a Putin ally who is often described as Europe’s last dictator. He has known Prigozhin for 20 years and offered to mediate with Putin’s agreement.

What was said in the mid-coup negotiations?

Prigozhin had earlier demanded that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and army general Valery Gerasimov be handed over to him. There is no sign that the Kremlin agreed to those demands,and a spokesman for Putin would not say if there would be any change among defence personnel in Russia.

How canPrigozhin challenge Putin and then escape with his life?

As part of the negotiations,charges against Prigozhin for staging a mutiny were quickly dropped and he had to leave Russia and reside in Belarus.

Additionally,any Wagner fighters who had taken part in the alleged coup would not face any action. Others who had not taken part would be able to sign contracts with the Russian defence forces.

What is next for Putin – and are his days numbered?

Former ambassador to NATO and special envoy for Ukraine Kurt Volker toldThe New York Times this weekend’s revolt spells the beginning of the end of Putin’s tenure,despite the wagering of a deal.

“This is positioning,” Volker said. “Prigozhin wants to be seen as a hero for Russians while he lines up more support and makes demands. The state will go after him,and that can be his excuse for ‘reluctantly’ defending himself.”

The Centre for European Policy Analysis in Washington said that either way,Putin’s position appeared to be weakened. Even if this was the beginning of Putin’s downfall,it said he would ultimately be replaced “by a hard-right faction that will be more brutal and less restrained when it comes to the war in Ukraine”.

Russia has 5977 nuclear weapons,the biggest arsenal of any country,which is particularly worrying if a desperate Putin feels backed into a corner.

“Weakness begets riskier behaviour on Putin’s part,” said Jon Huntsman jnr,a former ambassador to Russia under President Donald Trump. “There’s a new ripple in Putin’s ‘invincibility’,which will be exploited from every angle.”

With Reuters,The New York Times