The number of seats in each state is determined by their share of the nation’s overall population,except in Tasmania,which is constitutionally guaranteed five electorates. Within states and territories,the electoral commission attempts to have the same number of voters in each seat.
A slump in population growth during the COVID-19 pandemic in NSW and Victoria and a surge in WA have forced the electoral commission into the redistribution in the three states.
Election analyst William Bowe said scrutiny would be on the seats with the lowest enrolments,which places the focus on inner-suburban electorates with static populations.
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He said the boundaries of Goldstein and Kooyong – two former blue-ribbon Melbourne seats snatched by theClimate 200-backed teal movement in the last election – could change,and envisaged a scenario where the latter spread further east to capture part of Chisholm,a seat lost by the Liberals to Labor in 2022.
The Liberal Party will try to win back Kooyong,whichformer treasurer Josh Frydenberg lost to independent Dr Monique Ryan last year. Bowe said a shift in Kooyong’s boundary could pose a challenge for Ryan due to the change in demographics.
He expected six electorates in Melbourne’s east to become five,and nominated one of Chisholm or Higgins – held bynew Labor MPs Carina Garland and DrMichelle Ananda-Rajah respectively – to go in the redistribution,as they were 2.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent below the enrolment average of 118,000 voters per electorate.