In contrast,the support for his closest rival,Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,has fallen so far behind that he now trails Trump by more than 30 percentage points.
To some extent,none of this should be surprising. While Trump may pose a threat to democratic norms,few other politicians have ever been so successful at tapping into the grievances and alienation of millions of Americans,particularly those who fear their country is being taken through deception and lies.
Now his legal woes have become central to his campaign pitch. As he wrote on social media on Thursday (US time) before pleading not guilty to four conspiracy and obstruction charges relating to his attempts to stay in power:“I am now going to Washington DC to be arrested for having challenged a corrupt,rigged&stolen election. It is a great honour because I am being arrested for you.”
It’s a message that has resonated whereverthe former president has been charged.
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“If they can come after him,they can come after anyone,” Long Island resident Diane Lewis told mein Manhattan on the day Trump was charged there.
Cuban-American businessman Evelio Medina explained afterthe former president was arraigned in Miami:“There’s no point talking about Democrats and Republicans because the traditional party system is dead. This is a movement.”
Andthis week in Washington?
“Democrats think they’re helping the country,but they’re hurting the country,” said Dion Cini,who stood outside the courthouse holding a flag emblazoned with the words “Trump or Death”.
“We’ve gone beyond division. We were friendlier in the Civil War.”
There’s no doubt Trump’s legal woes will exacerbate tensions in the Divided States of America,but whether any of these charges stick,let alone make a difference,is the obvious question.
The latest indictment puts the 77-year-old front and centre of a months-long,multipart conspiracy to obstruct and overthrow Biden’s election victory.
That conspiracy involved stoking lies about voter fraud,embracing a scheme designed to usefake electors to flip electoral college votes in seven battleground states,mounting a pressure campaign on state and federal officials to overturn the results,and exploiting the protest that led to theCapitol riots.
Trump’s lawyers say he will fight the charges by arguing that he is protected by America’s right to free speech,and that he genuinely believed that the 2020 election was rigged.
“It’s a very straightforward defence – that he had every right to advocate for a position that he believed in and that his supporters believed in,” his lawyer,John Lauro,told NPR.
“What we will argue to the jury – and we’ll win – is that the president was arguing for the truth to come out in that election cycle,rather than the truth to be denied.”
Legal scholars and Trump’s own former attorney general,Bill Barr,however,are not convinced that the First Amendment defence will fly.
“As the indictment says,they are not attacking his First Amendment right,” Barr said this week. “He can say whatever he wants,he can even lie. He can even tell people that the election was stolen when he knew better. But that does not protect you from entering into a conspiracy.”
What’s more,Trump allegedly perpetuated his stolen election claims despite being repeatedly told by his own aides,national intelligence officials and White House counsel,that there was no evidence of voter fraud.
“Wilful delusion is not a defence in criminal law,” said Professor Alan Rozenshtein,a national security law expert and former Justice Department official.
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“It’s always tricky to establish a defendant’s frame of mind,but I do thinkthe special counsel is prepared,as we can see from the voluminous evidence of Trump being told over and over again that he had lost.”
Maybe none of these defences will come to pass any time soon. Trump’s main strategy,after all,is to delay his trials beyond the next election:that way,if he wins,he can pardon himself;if he doesn’t,he’ll hope someone might do so for him.
Half a century after Ford pardoned Nixon,will the tranquillity of the nation be irreparably lost by then?
Trump is embroiled in seven cases in several jurisdictions involving:
- Four counts,including three of conspiracy,relating to an effort to overturn the 2020 election which led to the January 6 Capitol riots;first hearing scheduled for August 28,2023,Washington
- Alleged “persistent and repeated business fraud” at his Trump Organisation,October 2023 trial,New York
- Writer E Jean Carrol’s second defamation trial on January 15,2024,New York
- A lawsuit by four investors who claim losses from an alleged pyramid scheme involving a phone company promoted by Trump onThe Apprentice. The claim is now against Trump alone,as claims against his children were dropped after they gave dispositions. Trial starts on January 29,2024,New York
- 34 counts relating to alleged hush money paid to Stormy Daniels,trial set for March 25,2024,New York
- 40 counts relating to classified documents kept at his residence,May 20,2024 trial,Florida
- Alleged scheme to overturn the 2020 election Georgia college vote,Georgia
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