I have just been in contact withKawa Hassan,a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Centre’s Middle East&North Africa program.
He has painted a very bleak outlook for how the Israel-Hamas conflict may unfold.
“One of the hard lessons of October 7 was the sense of sham stability in Middle East,and the failure of imagination and how the lack of a solution to the Palestinian cause could bring the region to the brink of an abyss,” Hassan said.
Hassan pointed to comments made by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivanwho said just two weeks ago that the Middle East region was quieter today than it has been in two decades.
Hassan said the destruction of Gaza could be a godsend for terrorist organisations.
“Should the doomsday scenario of a regional confrontation come to pass,it will spell geopolitical and humanitarian disasters for the Middle East and beyond,” Hassan said.
“The euphoria of the blitzkrieg and destruction of Gaza will almost certainly radicalise new generations in the region and in the West.
“This dynamic is a godsend for terrorist groups such as ISIS,Al Qaeda,and new iterations of violent extremism.”
Hassan said Russia would also benefit from an overstretched US and her allies as they would be less equipped to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and financially.