In a less gloomy time,2024 would be heralded as a great festival of global democracy. Elections will be held in eight of the world’s 10 most populous countries. A greater number of people are expected to cast ballots than in any other year in history. But liberal democracy is producing scarily illiberal outcomes. In the US election,the very survival of American democracy is on the ballot because of the distinct possibility that a re-elected Donald Trump would seek to turn the presidency into a potentate.

The Indian elections look like producing a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi,a Hindu nationalist now feted by the West,who was once banned from entering the United States because of allegations – never proved – that he turned a blind eye to the massacre of almost 2000 Muslims during the 2002 riots in Gujarat,the state where he served as chief minister. India,which in 2023 overtook China as the world’s most populous country,is now frequently described as the most optimistic nation on the planet. However,another victory for Modi would likely fuel his demagogic and authoritarian tendencies,and put Indian secularism,the country’s foundational idea,under even more severe strain.

The 2024 South Africa election will also be emblematic. Long gone is the sense of promise that marked its first multiracial election in 1994,when,following the release of Nelson Mandela from prison,voters queued for hours to cast their ballots. Recently,The Economist predicted that less than a quarter of the post-apartheid “born-free generation” would even bother to vote.

Across the world,democracy is in decline. The 2023 report from the watchdog Freedom House showed that global freedom had declined for the 17th consecutive year.

It is not just politics. In this age of generative artificial intelligence,the phrase “technological progress” sounds frighteningly oxymoronic. Clearly AI has the potential to deliver quantum leaps,especially in the fields of disease diagnosis and pandemic prevention,but there are well-founded fears about autonomous weaponry,the elimination of millions of white-collar jobs and the civilisational threat posed by algorithms that even their creators do not fully comprehend.

The past 12 months have also reminded us of the existential threat posed by climate change:2023 will be the hottest year on record. In Hawaii,paradise became an inferno. Projections about the displacement effect of global warming,and the surge in refugees it will create,are alarming. According to the UN,weather-related disasters caused an average of 21.5million displacements for each of the past 15 years. Given howimmigration is fuelling right-wing populism,the political ramifications are immense.

Nor is it just the glut of global problems that is so worrying,but also their interconnectedness. Ukraine is now in direct competition with Israel for US munitions. Attacks on international cargo ships in the Red Sea – the response from Iran’s proxies in Yemen to the Gaza war – are disrupting global supply chains. Muslim voters in America,angry over the Biden administration’s unbending support for Israel,are threatening to boycott the presidential election,which would be a boon for Trump.

America’s elite universities,traditionally great powerhouses of progress,have dug their own reputational ditches because of the failure of the heads of Harvard,the University of Pennsylvania and MIT during a congressional hearing to state unequivocally that calling for the genocide of Jews violated their codes of conduct.

Polycrisis,a term popularised by the economic historian Adam Tooze,has become a handy tagline. But we also appear to have entered a phase ofpermacrisis,a prolonged phase of world-altering convulsions:September 11,the Great Recession,the global pandemic,the climate emergency,January 6 and October 7. Certainly,the world’s problems cannot be glibly written off as a perfect storm,for tempests pass and clouds part. This weather system feels like it is here to stay.

As ever in the land Down Under,it is tempting to haul up the mental drawbridge and think we are largely protected. However,even Australia no longer feels quite so aspirational. A survey published in 2023 suggested almost three-quarters of young Australians believe they will never be able to buy a home,the cornerstone of the Australian dream. Gross national income per person is expected to grow at half the rate of the past four decades,according to the government’s 2023 Intergenerational Report – what the former Treasury secretary Ken Henry has described as an“intergenerational tragedy”.

Australia’s reform era hit pause at the turn of the century. As the Voice referendum and its aftermath have shown,the reconciliation project has gone into reverse. Far too much political bandwidth is taken up by pointless battles of the day.

Advances,obviously,are still being made. In 2025,solar and wind are expected tosurpass coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation. In response to COVID-19,scientists managed to develop a vaccine at warp speed. Yet,the pandemic catchphrase “build back better” has gone into early retirement. And other problems have crowded in.

Defeatism is not an option,and to raise the spirits I frequently find myself turning to the African-American poet Amanda Gorman,whose words during Joe Biden’s 2021 inauguration ceremony offered a more brightly illuminated path than those of the incoming president. There is always light,she said,“if only we’re brave enough to see it. If only we’re brave enough to be it.” Maybe that just sounds like desk-calendar wisdom. But in these dark times,I’ll take luminescence wherever I can get it.

Nick Bryant is the author of When America Stopped Being Great:A History of the Presentand The Rise and Fall of Australia:How a great nation lost its way.