Labor’s once-in-a-century achievement in April,when itwon the seat of Aston from the opposition,had set unrealistic expectations for Labor,according to Monash University emeritus professor Paul Strangio.

“Dunkley in a sense is more important for the Liberal Party than for Labor,because of the importance of showing it can be a competitive force,” Strangio said.

Labor has dominated the Liberals in recent state and federal elections in Victoria,particularly metropolitan Melbourne where the Coalition holds just three federal seats. The state seats sitting within and around Dunkley were once marginal but are now safely in Labor’s grasp.

Strangio noted that while the average swing against governments was about 5 per cent,the average shift against first-term governments,like Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s,was between 1-2 per cent in recent decades.

Redbridge pollster and former Victorian Labor official Kos Samaras said the “balltearer” of a byelection was one of the most important in a long time.

“Dutton has to win it,or generate a solid swing,to prove his strategy in the outer suburbs is working. Albanese definitely needs to protect it,” Samaras said.

Dunkley has a higher-than-average proportion of people with TAFE degrees and a lower-than-average number of university graduates. This group included nurses,chefs,aged care and health workers,professionals who are likely to endure mortgage stress,Samaras noted.

While the seat is held by a margin of more than 6 per cent,Samaras said Murphy’s personal popularity and so-called sophomore surge – the uptick in support that MPs receive at their second election when they become more well-known – meant the margin was more like 4 per cent.

Former Coalition minister Bruce Billson held the seat for two decades until 2016,when Liberal Chris Crewther defeated Murphy by a 1.5 per cent margin. A redrawing of Dunkley’s boundaries in 2019 made the seat tougher to win for the Coalition after Mornington and parts of Mount Eliza,which have high-income pockets,were removed.

Dunkley’s boundaries contain the suburb of Frankston in Melbourne’s bayside south-east,as well as Seaford,Carrum Downs,Skye,Sandhurst and Langwarrin.

At Murphy’s funeral service at the MCG on December 15,Glover fondly remembered waking up on Sunday mornings with her at their Frankston home. He then paused,overcome by emotion.

“She left us 11 days ago,and she left the way she lived – with dignity,courage,and sarcasm,” he said.

Glover said the prime minister was the first person to call him after Murphy died.

“I burst into tears,and he simply cried with me,” Glover said. “He has a big heart too.”

With Lachlan Abbott

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