Champions know when to rise to the occasion. Wolves sense when dinner is there for the taking and when it isn’t. Djokovic is simply being straightforward by telling us that this was not a match of importance to him. It was undoubtedly part of the master plan to get a couple of matches under his belt,but once the wrist injury surfaced,it was time to manage and mitigate. Going to Melbourne to rebuild was far more appealing to the Serb than going to Sydney and risking further injury by competing in the United Cup semi-finals.
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So where does this leave Alex de Minaur?
The answer is two-fold. Firstly,he will be buoyed by beating the No.1 player in the world on home turf,and rightly so. Mentally,this victory is a rite of passage to ascend new heights in the sport. He is currently ranked No.12,and his career-best ranking is No.11. Reaching the rarefied air of the top 10 seems far more likely with a scalp of this magnitude.
The timing of the victory is also ideal for de Minaur. It will provide a massive shot of confidence and adrenaline for the 24-year-old leading into the Australian Open. In many ways,he should not care if Djokovic played with one arm tied behind his back. A win is a win;he should rightfully take it and run.
But that’s only half the story. De Minaur has been on the dinner plate of elite-level opponents in big matches for some time. He got pumped 6-3,6-0 by Jannik Sinner in the Davis Cup finals six weeks ago. His formidable strengths are his backhand and his foot speed. Areas to attack are his forehand and second serve.
In the Davis Cup final,de Minaur only held serve three times. Sinner won 67 per cent (32/48) of his service points,while de Minaur was underwater,winning only 47 per cent (27/57). Sinner crushed 15 forehand winners,while de Minaur collected just five.
Novak Djokovic was far from 100 per cent in Perth,and nonetheless knows the real prizes are still to come.Credit:AP
De Minaur’s victory against (an injured) Djokovic in Perth was head-turning. De Minaur’s recent loss to Sinner in Malaga,Spain,was sobering.
De Minaur reached his maiden ATP Masters 1000 final in the middle of the year in Canada,losing 6 4,6-1 to Sinner. It was a baseline brawl in which you would expect de Minaur to excel,but the Aussie hit just one baseline winner from 105 points against the Italian. Strategically,it was the wrong fight to pick.
Again,de Minaur’s victory over Djokovic this week is momentum-building. But two one-sided losses to Sinner in the last few months signal that holes still need filling. Sinner won 57 per cent (44/77) of his baseline points in the Canadian final,while de Minaur managed to win just 39 per cent (28/72). The shot that broke down for de Minaur was his forehand,with 21 errors and one solitary winner. On the other hand,Sinner committed 18 forehand errors while collecting four winners.
Overall,de Minaur hits his forehand much flatter than most opponents and too often recovers back to the middle of the court when he hits the ball instead of staying longer on the shot. That brings net errors into play. Hitting it so flat means he has less margin for error and can’t hit it hard enough to take time away to prepare for his opponents.
A ruthless Djokovic dispatched De Minaur in straight sets at last year’s Australian Open.Credit:Getty
Sinner’s average forehand speed against de Minaur in Canada was 127km/h. De Minaur’s was just 110km/h. Sinner’s shape on the backhand also gave him a significant edge in speed. The Italian averaged 120km/h with backhand groundstrokes,while the Aussie averaged 102km/h.
In many ways,the current yardstick for de Minaur is a rampaging Sinner. Not a nicked-up Djokovic. One aspect of de Minaur’s game against Djokovic that appeared to be a clever addition was the abundant use of slice (backspin) off the backhand wing. It sucked all the power out of the rally and kept the ball low out of Djokovic’s strike zone. It effectively gave Djokovic no power to use back against de Minaur.
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De Minaur then used his prodigious foot speed to jump on the inevitable short ball to gain an offensive advantage. He mixed just the right amount against Djokovic to keep the Serb off balance and unsure what was coming next.
De Minaur will leave Perth with a win against the current world No.1 and realistic dreams of a deep run in Melbourne. Djokovic will leave Perth with two crucial “build-up” matches and plenty of time to crawl into a cave in Melbourne and heal.
Djokovic knows that hunting season is fast approaching. He mauled de Minaur 6-2,6-1,6-2 in the fourth round of the 2023 Australian Open. That wound is still fresh for both players.
Craig O’Shannessy coached on the ATP Tour for 20 years,most notably working with Novak Djokovic from 2017-2019.