A missile is on display with a sign on it reading in Farsi:“Death to Israel” in front of a mosque in the shape of Dome of the Rock of Jerusalem at an entrance of the Quds town west of the capital Tehran,Iran.Credit:AP
For the time being,these tit-for-tat operations have resulted in a stalemate,with each side having achieved a degree of face-saving to play down the prospects of a broader conflict. It seems both sides have tested their capabilities and vulnerabilities to a point that for now,they may be deterred from engaging in a much-feared war.
But this lull does not necessarily spell the end of this long-running shadowy war. To the contrary,Israel’s Isfahan attack was followed by a huge explosion in an Iranian-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces base in Iraq,killing a pro-Iranian militia and injuring seven. The US has denied any involvement and Israel has,as usual,said nothing. But US sources have reported Israel to be the perpetrator. Iran can be expected to respond,but as before through one of its regional affiliated forces. Thus,the cycle of hostility between the two nations continues.
While an escalation in conflict between Iran and Israel would be devastating for either nation,in the current environment,one has far more to lose than the other. With both nations putting their cards on the table,the danger of a regional war has diminished. But the potential for it through intentional action or miscalculation still exists in a highly volatile region that has often defied predictions.
Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian studies at the Australian National University,adjunct professor of social sciences at the University ofWestern Australia,and author ofIran Rising:the survival and future of the Islamic Republic.
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