The island of 23.5 million people plays an outsized role in global affairs. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s foremost goal of taking control of Taiwan is a direct challenge to the US-led liberal international order centred on democratic norms.

Xi has repeatedly declared that unification is inevitable. The Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan but claims it as its own despite a split from the mainland in 1949,when the Republic of China government retreated to the island at the end of a civil war.

Beijing has increased its hostilities in the Taiwan Strait in recent years,regularly sending fighter jets and warships towards the island in a campaign of harassment.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office denounced Lai’s speech,saying it “hypes up the fallacy of separatism,incites cross-strait opposition and confrontation,and attempts to seek independence by relying on external forces”.

“Our will to resolve the Taiwan issue and complete national reunification is as firm as a rock,” it said in a statement. “We will never tolerate any form of separatist acts of Taiwan independence”.

Wen-ti Sung,a specialist on Taiwanese politics and cross-strait relations at the Australian National University,said Lai would walk a fine line over the next four years trying to deter Beijing from military action by strengthening its partnership with the US and its allies,including Australia,while trying to avoid inflaming tensions that could provoke war.

“Having a pragmatic and predictable Taiwan over the next four years is going to be really a linchpin to continue peace and stability for the region and beyond. In that sense,Lai will be a major figure who has a great role to play in safeguarding regional order,” said Sung.

Lai,a former doctor and the son of a coal miner and who is also known by his English name William,secured the presidency and a historic third term for the Democratic Progressive Party at elections in January.

Domestically,he will have to contend with a divided parliament after the DPP was plunged into minority government. Lai himself will face the immediate challenge of uniting the country behind his presidency,having secured 40 per cent of the vote after most Taiwanese parked their vote with the two major opposition parties the Kuomintang,which favours closer ties with China,and newcomer party,the Taiwan People’s Party.

His election nonetheless enraged Beijing,which regards him as a “dangerous separatist”. Lai garnered a reputation as being stridently pro-independence after describing himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” in 2017,a statement that he has since walked back in an effort to broaden his appeal to a population that overwhelming favours maintaining the status quo.

Lev Nachman,a Taiwan politics expert at Taipei’s National Chengchi University,said Lai had spent the past two years “trying to convince Taiwanese voters and the world he will be Tsai Ing-wen 2.0”.

Nachman said even if Lai still harboured pro-independence yearnings,he would be restrained by public opposition,a fractured parliament and,perhaps most importantly,the desires of its key ally and security guarantor.

“America has made it very clear that they do not want Taiwan crossing any red lines that would further escalate tensions,” he said.

A sign of the challenge that Lai will face on the domestic front was on display on the streets of central Taipei on Sunday,when several thousand protesters gathered to vent their frustrations with the DPP and Lai’s incoming government on issues ranging from unaffordable rents,stagnant wages and skyrocketing energy costs.

For TPP supporter Frances Lin,48,Lai’s attempts to fashion himself as a moderate politician who will pragmatically pursue the status quo with Beijing have fallen flat.

“There will be a tremendous risk under William Lai. Beijing will be unhappy about his attitude towards Taiwan independence,so that escalation will probably lead to an increased possibility of a war in the Taiwan Strait,” she said.

At the inauguration,DPP supporters were revelling in another four years in power.

“We have profound confidence in the democratic system we have built in Taiwan,” said a lady who identified herself only as Mrs Yu. She said she had full faith that Lai would maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait by continuing Tsai’s legacy.

“A man who is elected by the people will be the right man to do the job,” she said.

More than 500 foreign guests attended the inauguration,many of them part of unofficial delegations owing to the fact that most countries do not have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Among them was a bipartisan delegation of Australian federal MPs whose attendance was criticised by Chinese officials as violating the one-China principle.

The leaders of eight of the 11 countries that formally recognise Taiwan also attended,among them the presidents of tiny Pacific island nations Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands.

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