Agriculture Minister Murray Watt iswidely viewed as a minister likely to be given a new portfolio. While some of his allies would like to see him in a proactive portfolio like housing,there is a distinct possibility Giles or O’Neil’s responsibilities could be transferred to Watt. There has been speculation Watt’s agriculture rounds could be given to Julie Collins,with Collins’ housing role handed to O’Neil.

Labor sources have also speculated Giles’ immigration portfolio will be elevated into the cabinet rather than the more junior outer ministry,boosting its prominence as a government priority.

In other mooted changes,Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy or Veterans Affairs Minister Matt Keogh would enter cabinet in the spot of retiring minister Brendan O’Connor,who for months has been rumoured to be in line for the ambassador to Ireland role.

Senator Malarndirri McCarthy will replace Linda Burney as Indigenous Australians Minister. Assistant ministers Jenny McAllister,Tim Ayres or Ged Kearney could be promoted,and Andrew Charlton or Luke Gosling may enter the ranks of assistant ministers.

Albanese has made a virtue of not needing to sack a minister,emphasising that a rejig more than two years after the 2022 election would “enable a refresh” as the government puts together its re-election agenda for a poll due by May 2025. The reshuffle on Sunday is expecting to be a tinkering rather than a wholesale revamp.

“I will be seeking to be the first prime minister since John Howard in 2004 to serve out a term and to be re-elected as prime minister,” Albanese said at a press conference announcing Burney and O’Connor’s resignations on Thursday.

O’Neil is widely considered a bright and ambitious politician with a long future ahead of her. The 43-year-old entered parliament at 32 after a career as a mayor and a McKinsey consultant. Her smarts immediately marked her as a future senior leader,but despite her capability she is not a factional dealer like Giles and therefore has less institutional support.

Despite the setback a demotion or sideways shift would cause,O’Neil will likely remain a long-term cabinet minister and retain her ambition for more prestigious roles. In 2019,she unsuccessfully put her hand up to be Labor’s deputy leader when Albanese was selected as opposition leader.

MPs have questioned for many months why Albanese chose a first-time minister in O’Neil and a left-wing former human rights lawyer in Giles for the two ministries that most lend themselves to the muscular national security and tough-on-border rhetoric traditionally seen as Coalition strengths.

The NZYQ scandal,and Giles’ decision-making around deportation of dual citizens to New Zealand,have given the Coalition energy during its first term in opposition.

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