“That could easily be enough to tip Australia into an actual recession,” he said. “It’s not just the tuition fees that international students pay. They pay rent,they spend money on food and entertainment,and they travel. And that spending in the broader economy … that’s where a lot of businesses are really struggling at the moment.”
The federal government has used international students as a key lever to meet its goal of slashing net immigration from 520,000 in the 2023 financial year to 260,000 by June next year.
Both the government and the opposition have linked the post-COVID-19 surge in international students to housing stress,with migration shaping as a key battleground in the lead-up to the next election.
In May,Education Minister Jason Clare introduced a bill to allow him to cap international student numbers at both course and provider levels,but maintains the proposed limits have not been finalised.
Holden has based his economic analysis on the impact of caps if the government limited universities to 2019 student numbers.
Holden has based his economic analysis on the impact of caps if the government limited universities to 2019 student numbers – a scenario modelled by some institutions and discussed in the sector – which he said would amount to a 20 per cent reduction in foreign enrolments.
In 2023,there were 437,485 international students in Australian universities. Holder’s analysis,which does not include the vocational sector,said based on year-to-date growth rates,this figure would rise to 529,897 in 2024.