The coastal retirement hub of Lake Macquarie in the Hunter region is also expected to add 26,548 more people by 2041 now than it was in 2019.

Western Sydney’s population growth is foreshadowed to be hundreds of thousands of residents smaller than it was in 2019,with drops in Penrith (-97,728),Liverpool (-79,740),Canterbury-Bankstown (-72,969),Camden (-70,647),and Parramatta (-70,525).

The steepest proportional falls from what was forecast in 2019 are in Penrith,Strathfield and Burwood,where expectations have been shaved down by one-quarter or more.

A NSW Planning Department spokesman said the population projections for Maitland,Shoalhaven,Wollondilly and Wollongong were larger than previously forecast in 2019,mostly due to an increase in domestic and overseas migration for housing,education and employment opportunities.

“The revision[for western Sydney] reflects lower fertility rates and housing activity compared to 2019 and reduced residential development on floodplains,” the spokesman said.

Shoalhaven Mayor Patricia White said the council south of Sydney was attempting to rezone land to deliver more homes but was waiting for the state government to finalise planning rules around Airbnb-style accommodation,industrial lands,and changes to the Nowra central business district.

“The council’s in a predicament about how we move it all forward. We’re trying to move it all forward,but we need to work closely with the state government to implement all these[changes].”

Opposition planning spokesman Scott Farlow said the forecasts showed much of Sydney’s growth would continue to concentrate in the north-west and south-west,particularly around the future Western Sydney Airport. He said this highlighted the pressing need for more homes and “city-building” infrastructure,such as transport links,schools and health services in those locations.

Farlow said the surging population in regional areas around Sydney,such as Shoalhaven,reflected a “reassessment of people’s willingness to live in regional NSW” driven by the pandemic.

“We’ve got to make sure the infrastructure is there to support those communities,but also that these aren’t necessarily satellite communities to Sydney,and they have their own identity in that people can live and work within the region,rather than just having a longer commute,” Farlow said.

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the updated forecasts showed population growth was expected in established areas of Sydney,the Illawarra,the Hunter and Central Coast. He added there had also been a shift in population distribution from the western suburbs to Sydney’s east,which was “in line with our efforts to rebalance housing growth across Sydney,near to existing infrastructure”.

“We will continue to invest in infrastructure to support this growth as communities need.”

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories,analysis and insights.Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.