Most people are expecting them to win,and win well. All the pressure is on Billy Slater’s team for game one next week. How does that sit with them? I’m not sure they will be that comfortable,to be honest.
New NSW Blues coach Jake Trbojevic revealed he was walking his dog with his fiance Alex when he got the call from coach Michael Maguire.
Ever since the concept of Origin started way back in 1980,the Maroons have latched onto the underdog tag – and refuse to let go.
They pick a team full of no-frills players who will scrap and claw for every last inch,and then flip the script with an against-the-odds win. That’s the Origin story they try to write every year.
But I just can’t see how anyone can consider them underdogs this time.
In fact,this year’s series is one where the tables have completely turned;NSW has picked a big and powerful team with some no-nonsense toilers trying to win through power and effort,and Queensland has all the X-factor and speed with some outstanding outside backs. The roles have completely reversed.
Reece Walsh and Queensland will be favourites for game one.Getty
It’s going to be a fascinating battle of tactics between NSW coach Michael Maguire and Slater.
The thing I like about Maguire’s first Blues side is he’s gone for all players in form. I feel for James Tedesco who has had a good season so far,but Dylan Edwards deserves his spot. He’s been consistently outstanding for four years.
The home ground is a massive advantage for NSW in game one. They’ve got to make the most of it. The opening game of any series is traditionally low-scoring,there’s not a lot of open and free-flowing football. That would suit NSW this time.
The big worry is a couple of players carrying minor injuries into camp,particularly Nicho Hynes. With a bunch of new combinations,I can’t stress how important it is for them to hit the ground running on the training field. They need everyone out there to find what works and what doesn’t. Your time is so limited leading up to an Origin game,and you need to make sure you nail every facet.
Joseph Suaalii has a massive job to do in the centres. I would be tempted to have him on the wing and shuffle Zac Lomax into the centres. Regardless,NSW’s hopes will largely rest on how effective their back-five is running the ball back from their own end.
They’ve got to fight for everything. If they think they’re already dirty enough,make another effort and get dirtier. And on the back of that,they need a first-class kicking game from Hynes,particularly if the forecast for wet weather leading into the game is correct.
I’ve got no doubt Slater will have a succinct plan. It might not be obvious at the moment,but come full-time we’ll understand why he left David Fifita out of his squad.
Queensland’s edge is the number of games their key men like Daly Cherry-Evans,Ben Hunt and Harry Grant have played together. Tom Dearden’s brief at five-eighth will be simple:tackle well,support and be tenacious like he was in his Origin debut two years ago.
Queensland has gone for a lighter and more mobile forward pack,a hint they will try to get big minutes out of Pat Carrigan,Reuben Cotter and Lindsay Collins. That allows them to have Selwyn Cobbo as a bench player. He’s just there for insurance. He might play five or 10 minutes,or could be required for 65. It’s a weapon regardless.
On paper,Queensland might have the best team. But as they know all too well,the best team on paper doesn’t always win Origin.
Moses and Gutherson huge boosts for Eels
It’s now or never for the Eels. They are so out of form and lacking in confidence even South Sydney managed to put 42 points on them last week.
Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson are huge inclusions for Parramatta,but that’s tempered by J’Maine Hopgood going on Origin duty. He’s been their best forward this season.
Mitchell Moses and Brad Arthur.Getty
The Sharks were absolutely awful against the Panthers at PointsBet Stadium last week,but I can forgive them being blown away like that in one game. They had two huge wins the fortnight before over the Storm and Roosters and this competition has a way of catching up with you. I want to see them bounce back this week,though.
Hynes and Cameron McInnes are two huge omissions for Cronulla,and I don’t think we’ll understand what impact missing McInnes will have until Thursday night. He just does so many of the little effort things that go unnoticed by most.
I think with their offloads and ball movement with Moses and Gutherson back,the Eels might have just enough to get home.
Joey’s tip: Eels by 2
First try-scorer: Bailey Simonsson
Man of the match: Mitchell Moses
Knights can handle much-improved Bulldogs
I’ve been so glad to see the Bulldogs finally looking like they’ve turned a corner after years in the doldrums.
There were many questions about their recruitment heading into this season,but it’s been spot on. The likes of Jaeman Salmon,Kurt Mann and Josh Curran are versatile and tough competitors. They’ve been great buys. Their defence is in order and I thought Toby Sexton was dominant last week at halfback and that jersey should be his for a while.
But missing Stephen Crichton,Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau means they have a huge task against Newcastle on Friday night. The Knights have coped really well without Kalyn Ponga. His replacement,David Armstrong,has been sensational.
Newcastle has two really promising fullbacks in Armstrong and Fletcher Sharpe,a good Cessnock boy who lit up the junior reps. They’ve got some wonderful depth there.
Given where both teams are on the ladder,this is a huge game in the context of both seasons. The Knights should have a little bit too much with Canterbury’s big guns out.
Joey’s tip: Knights by 10
First try-scorer: Greg Marzhew
Man of the match: Jackson Hastings
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