In the lead-up to Paris 2024,the slick filmOlympics Has Fallen– a play on the 2013 thrillerOlympus Has Fallen – has appeared online. In it,Cruise,“the actor” as he reminds us,details his apparent backstory in sport cut short “by a knee injury” – and his certainty that dodgy Olympic officials are turning the world’s oldest games into a rort.
Only none of it,including Cruise’s suspiciously stilted narration,is real.
A clip from the bogus Olympics Has Fallen film featuring AI-generated Tom Cruise narration. Telegram
The fraudulent film has been shared across social media,complete with bogus five-star reviews,stirring graphics of smouldering Olympic rings,and fake endorsements from fellow celebrities such as David Beckham and Miley Cyrus. Some celebs were even duped into recording real messages supporting “Tom”,via the site Cameo where people pay celebrities for personalised videos. Those videos were then deceptively edited into promotional material for the film,according to Microsoft’s threat centre.
Welcome to Russia’s information war on Paris 2024.
The Olympics are the biggest event ever organised in France – and they face the biggest cyber threat yet,with experts expecting hundreds of thousands of attacks around those 16 days in July and August,mostly from Russia.
While blocking hacks on the Games has almost become an Olympic sport in itself,this year’s event,set during two major wars in Gaza and Ukraine,is considered the most vulnerable so far. And the fallout could reach well beyond cyberspace – not only could hackers stop the trains or attack power grids,broadcasts and ticketing,Russia’s growing wave of disinformation online could inspire protests,boycotts,even sabotage and terrorism.
Sour grapes
Russia and its ally Belarus are banned from the Olympics – their athletes can only compete without flags,and if they can prove they don’t support. French President Emmanuel Macron is one of the most hawkish European leaders on Russia,speaking of if necessary and having long clashed with Vladimir Putin over the Russian president’s. Not to mention Macron has just pulled the trigger on snap elections in France weeks before the Games begin,where his party faces that Russia has an interest in helping win.
“It’s the perfect storm,” says professor of cyberwar and former Australian government adviser Greg Austin.
French President Emmanuel Macron (right) has strongly backed Ukraine and its president Volodymyr Zelensky (left).AP
Already this month,a Russian-Ukrainian bombmaker has been in Paris,near where Ukrainian refugees have been taken in,following another bombing plot by a Chechen in May.
Fake graffiti has appeared in photos taken around the city spreading fears that the Games will become “the next Munich” (referencing the on the Israeli Olympic team at the 1972 Games in Germany). And fake news stories pushed by Russian bots warn of everything from an impending nuclear war between France and Russia to non-refundable Airbnb reservations and exotic allergic reactions to a bedbug epidemic in Paris.
Macron and Moscow are regularly trading barbs as the French president accuses Putin of trying to sabotage the Games,and Russian politicians “It would take just two minutes to nuke Paris.”
Examples of online disinformation pushed by Russian accounts to discredit the Paris Olympics.Monique Westermann
While Russia’s nuclear threats for the West are largely considered bluster,former cyber tsar for the Obama administration Michael Daniel says the cyber risk for the Olympics has never been higher.
“The Russians don’t have much to lose,” he says,and the Games give them a unique opportunity to sow chaos on the world stage. But then,“defences have never been higher either”.
For Russia expert Professor Mark Galeotti,the geopolitical backdrop recalls the tense early years of the Cold War when the rules were not clear. That makes it dangerous. But the attacks may be smaller,“stupider and pettier” than you’d expect,he says,recalling Russia’s embarrassment when one of the lights of the Olympic rings failed during the opening ceremony of its Sochi Winter Games in 2014.
“You can hardly go to war because your opening visuals have been disrupted,” says Galeotti. But even minor hacks allow Russia to humiliate its rivals,to show once again what it can do. It’s their way of saying,“We can mess with anything at any time,” Galeotti says.
Of course,with cyber criminals,hacktivists and other “useful idiots” tothe Kremlin all drawn to the “big target of the Games”,things could spiral out of control too,says Daniel.
From Russia with love
Russia has a long history of Olympic Games sabotage. In 1984,the Soviets boycotted the Los Angeles Games and were linked to threatening violence against non-white athletes. Then in 2016,in the midst of Russia’s doping scandal,its hackers penetrated the World Anti-Doping Agency to steal the private medical records of US athletes,including Serena and Venus Williams.
The embarrassing Olympic rings misfire at the Sochi Winter Games opening ceremony.Supplied
Two years later,at the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea,where Russian athletes were banned, took down part of the broadcast,and internal servers,in an attack nicknamed “Operation” by the US. They returned again tothe Tokyo Games – more than 4 billion attacks in total were detected,though attempts to overload networks then were blocked.
French organisers are 10 times that number of attacks this year. They’ve already begun,authorities say,including a bizarre takeover of the.
“Putin hates Macron,” says Austin,recalling major Russian hacks on the French president’s 2017 election campaign. “He’ll want chaos,and he’s not afraid to stir it up,short of provoking a major war.”
“The Russians are definitely on the warpath,” not just in cyberspace but in “unconventional guerilla-style sabotage operations”,says Austin,pointing to recent spates of arson in Western Europe linked to Russia. “It’s low level so far,but it’s classic playbook from the KGB in the 1970s,’80s.”
Still,he thinks other nations that might have posed a risk to the Games – such as North Korea and Iran – have fallen in cyber power of late and China has a lot to lose in Europe if it’s caught “embroiled in anything”.
Macron (right) met with Putin in 2022 over one of the Russian president’s notoriously long meeting tables,urging him to “calm things down” in Europe.AP
‘Cyber Pearl Harbour’ or death by a thousand hacks?
In the cybersecurity hub of Olympic Games in Paris,at a location kept secret,artificial intelligence helps prowl for intrusions,war games run cyber calamities,and “ethical hackers” are paid bounties to test for vulnerabilities.
The French have been ramping up their cyber defences for years. Ahead of the Games,they’ve turned to help from powerful Western allies such as the US and veterans of the Russian attacks in Korea.
Daniel heads of security companies,many of which are helping fortify France’s cyber defences for the Games,and says it’s too early to say where the main attacks might hit.
But Russian hackers are known to have code lying in wait in critical infrastructure abroad,from worms to the 2021 that shut down one of the US’s biggest fuel pipelines.
Counterterrorism expert Thomas Renard points to the hacks that a French TV network in 2015,where Russian attackers masqueraded as a “cyber caliphate”.
“Russia will attack French transport and energy systems,” and other critical infrastructure during the Games,Austin says. “But most of those attacks will be defeated … though they’ll probably succeed in some disruption,[perhaps] the trains shut down for a day.”
Galeotti says the Kremlin will want to “take the gloss off the Olympics” – always a huge soft-power opportunity for any host nation – but it still has restraint for now. He imagines it will be “death by a thousand cuts,a thousand irritations” to make the French government look incompetent,rather than the kind of “Cyber Pearl Harbour” knockout hit.
After all,there’s a risk that a major cyberattack on Paris could unify Europe against Russia,and turn French voters back to Macron. “And they won’t know what France has in the drawer in return,” says Galeotti.
Protesters shout anti-fascist slogans protesting against far-right gains in the European elections in June.Getty Images
Daniel agrees that,with so much of the world gathered in Paris,Putin will have to temper his desire to “poke a sharp stick in Macron’s eye”,or risk drawing the ire of China and other allies attending.
Hacks,then,are more likely to cause spectator chaos,targeting ticketing systems,broadcasts and transport,for example,rather than infrastructure like power grids that could endanger lives. Daniel expects security will be tight around the computers calculating who crosses a finish line and other key Olympic metrics. But hackers could still get creative.
“They could send out a fake text diverting people” from train stations or stadiums,says Daniel,as the edge between traditional cyberwar – hacking – blends with the disinformation war raging online.
How would the world respond?
Before Russia invaded Ukraine,knocking out power,trains,ATMs,airports,and TV stations throughout Ukraine. But the malware spread too far,paralysing hospitals,companies and shipping across the world,even looping back into Russia,and costing $12.9 billion in damage.
Some experts fear even a smaller-scale attack could get out of control again,and ignite a diplomatic incident inside a NATO country. While the line where a hack becomes an armed attack is still far from clear,Daniel says,enough of the world is wired now to put lives at risk.
“NATO certainly sees itself as in an information and cyberwar with Russia,” says Austin. But he doubts the Western alliance,long wary of,will let a hack spiral into actual warfare.
And,given Russia’s cyber army has proved even less effective than its troops in the Ukraine invasion,Austin thinks the Kremlin has already lost part of its cyber edge. International IT companies from Google to Microsoft have,it’s cut off from key electronics like computer chips,and its intelligence agencies,,are mired in division and corruption.
But Austin warns Moscow has learnt from its failures too,and is now “more determined to achieve things in cyberspace they’ve been denied on the battlefield”.
“They will follow up one win with another attack,they’ll be more targeted,clever.”
Gaelotti thinks that,while cyber weapons may have been overhyped in actual warfare,the Kremlin’s cyber arsenal has actually beenstrengthened,as it leans more on criminal hackers for operations.
This “crowdsourcing” is common in Putin’s Russia,he says. It’s not “like something out of a Bond movie … where in an extinct volcano Putin sits at the mahogany table issuing orders”. Instead,underlings “know roughly what the boss wants” and try to carry it out for favour.
That means many “very imaginative,emotionally bankrupt” freelancers are also in play,with varying degrees of competence.
A clip from the bogus Olympics Has Fallen movie featuring AI-generated Tom Cruise narration.
Crowdsourced chaos
Something the Kremlin does have success in,however,is whipping up dissent in rival nations. French agencies have recently a vast “foreign digital interference” network run by Russia,and Microsoft has warned Russia’s fake outrage machine online could spill over into staged protests.
Meanwhile,Russian and Belarussian nationals have been from volunteering at the Games over fears of physical sabotage.
Galeotti says those fears are not misplaced. While Russia’s diplomats have been expelled from France,it continues to run agents there,often through “increasingly arms-length recruitment” online,says Galeotti. Those pulled into missions may not even realise they are working for Moscow.
“We’ve had cases of private detectives hired to carry out surveillance … thinking they’ve been hired by an insurance company or a spouse,” he says.
And the Kremlin is expert in magnifying existing concerns,whether it’s the money spent on Olympic stadiums,the plight of Palestinians or perhaps,he adds,an inconvenient glitch in the Olympic ticketing system put there by Russia’s own hackers.
“Some attacks are clearly organised by Moscow,” says Galeotti,but others are better disguised,anonymously tapping into the extremist fringe,“in a similar way to Islamic State”.
Renard’s work at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism has already found Russia’s reach into the far right in Europe is growing,as Moscow gives political asylum to extremists aligned with the Kremlin.
At the other end of the spectrum,one fake Tom Cruise film may seem so bizarre it’s almost “taking the piss”. But Galeotti explains it’s all part of Russia’s storm of “info noise” – when there are so many bizarre conspiracies,so many competing versions of events,nothing can be believed.
Not even an actor who does his own stunts.
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