Trump redux a clear and present challenge to our foreign policy

The problem with taking many of Donald Trump’s utterances seriously is that his world view seems shaped by 1950s American daytime game shows likeThe Price is Right andLet’s Make a Deal,where bargaining and bluff always took home the money.

It’s remarkable over the years how he has often given the appearance of still being locked in a teenage time warp. But the possibility of Trump winning a second term as president of the United States changes the game so radically that such an eventuality would force Australia to take the man at his word and try to unravel his real intentions.

Donald Trump on the campaign trail.

Donald Trump on the campaign trail.AP

Good luck with that,for Trump is a shape-shifter who specialises in never being tied down. It has got him this far.

And the sort of chaos he masterfully promotes has proved a hard act to get a handle on while the old certainties fade from the staid world of geopolitics. As our international editor Peter Hartcher observed,Trump is,at core,transactional:“He fancies himself a brilliant dealmaker. Remember the title of his memoir,The Art of the Deal? A treaty alliance counts for nothing. This is consistent with Trump’s dealings with all treaties;he cheerfully withdraws from solemn US treaty commitments on everything from climate totrade.”

Hartcher’s reflections on the dangers inherent in Trump’s reelection potentially creating a new world disorder opened theHerald’s new five-part series,Trump 2.0,on Thursday.

It will be followed by senior economics correspondent Shane Wright describing his likely economic impact and the possibility of a serious financial crisis;foreign affairs correspondent Matthew Knott on the future of AUKUS;national environment and climate editor Nick O’Malley tracing Trump’s dislike of international climate agreements and the probable ramifications for global warming;and,finally,North America correspondent Farrah Tomazin will detail how our Washington diplomats and lobbyists would attempt to minimise poor outcomes for Australia under a Trump regime.

As a curtain-opener to the brave new Trump world,the day Hartcher’s words appeared,Russia and North Korea signed their strongest agreement since the end of the Cold War,one side reportedly shipping munitions to fight Ukrainians,the other sending economic assistance and technology to enhance Kim Jong-un’s nuclear weapons and missile program.

Hartcher noted Trump had pandered to Russia’s Vladimir Putin but also flouted his love affair with North Korea’s Kim and openly admired China’s Xi Jinping. He said it was telling that neither Moscow nor Beijing dared strike a US treaty ally or challenged the alliance system that Australia has been an integral part of for years.

“Trump has not only threatened to abandon the defence of NATO members in Europe,he’s also toyed publicly with the idea of abandoning the defence of Japan and South Korea,too,treaty allies all,” Hartcher said. “If Trump were to act on these threats to abandon allies,he would fundamentally upend the world order.”

TheHerald has already voiced concern at the possibility of a Trump re-election. We believe it would be a disaster for democracy,international relationships,the war in Ukraine and will further polarise and traumatise the people of his unhappy land. And,of most concern to Australia,his oxymoronic predilection for displaying contempt for allies sadly has the potential to recalibrate Australia’s relationship with the US.

In publishing the Trump 2.0 series,theHerald believes that discussing the choices facing Australia’s foreign policy is responsible,quality journalism that is important for our democracy. Much of what is raised in our series will give our subscribers insight into what our future could hold. We wish to inform the Australian public about the clear and present challenges Trump presents to Australia.

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Since the Herald was first published in 1831,the editorial team has believed it important to express a considered view on the issues of the day for readers,always putting the public interest first.

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