The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 3618 eligible voters in two stages,one in August and one in September,during a period of widespread media debate on the government proposal. The second track was held from September 14 to 18,when national news was dominated by the death of Queen Elizabeth and there was debate over a referendum on becoming a republic.
Asked which issue should take priority,45 per cent of voters named the Indigenous Voice and 27 per cent named the republic,while 28 per cent were undecided. The stronger support for the Voice matches the priority Albanese has set out in remarks since the death of the Queen.
Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney said on Sunday the Voice would not weigh in on taxation or defence but would stick to issues that directly affected Aboriginal people.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton accused the government on Friday of “making a lot of this up on the run” but Burney said this was “nonsense” because the government was working through the process.
Albanese aired his plan for the Voice at the Garma Festival in the Northern Territory at the end of July when he said the referendum would ask approval to set up a body to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
He said the amendment would say:“The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to parliament and the executive government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.”
The next sentence in the amendment would be:“The parliament shall,subject to this Constitution,have power to make laws with respect to the composition,functions,powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.”
The central questions in the Resolve Political Monitor put the prime minister’s precise wording to all respondents,in the first published survey of his specific proposal. The use of two survey tracks over two months produced a higher survey sample to provide more confidence in the estimates for majorities in each state.
The margin of error for the national results was 1.6 per cent and ranged in size for each state,with a margin of error of 2.9 per cent for NSW and 8.9 per cent for Tasmania. In each state,the majority support for the Voice was greater than the margin of error.
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A challenging campaign lies ahead for advocates of the Voice whenOpposition Leader Peter Dutton is questioning Labor’s process and a leading figure within the Coalition,Northern Territory SenatorJacinta Nampijinpa Price,does not support the change.
With the Greens arguing for a treaty with First Australians as a priority,Victorian Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe has described the Voice as a “waste of money” and is seeking negotiation with the government on the potential amendment.
A key issue in dispute is the scope of the Voice to shape federal laws on all issues or only specific laws about First Australians,along with a dispute over whether the Voice should have a say on executive decisions or only on draft legislation in parliament.
On this question,24 per cent said the Voice should only be about issues relating to Indigenous Australians,26 per cent said it should be about all issues and policy areas,22 per cent said they did not support a Voice at all and 27 per cent were undecided. (This adds up to 99 due to rounding.)
Voters appear to have a high awareness of the campaign for Indigenous recognition in the Constitution,with 85 per cent saying they were definitely aware or knew at least some detail.
Asked about their awareness of the Indigenous Voice,75 per cent said they were aware of the campaign for the change and 65 per cent said they were aware of the idea for a referendum to enshrine the Voice in the Constitution.
Australians were divided on what the change could achieve,with 27 per cent saying it would deliver practical outcomes as well as symbolic recognition but 15 per cent saying it would be symbolic only and 17 per cent saying it would not achieve either symbolic or practical benefits.
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Albanese has argued the reform would help improve outcomes for First Australians on health and education because their leaders would have input into policy. Asked about whether the change would help to close the gap on issues such as mortality and health,33 per cent said this was likely but 43 per cent said it was not likely and 25 per cent were undecided. (This adds up to 101 due to rounding.)
The questions about the scope of the Voice and what it would achieve were put to 1607 respondents from September 14 to 18,unlike the “yes” or “no” questions on the Voice,which were put to 3618 respondents in two tracks,in the September track as well as the August track.
With Angus Thompson
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