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AEC commissioner Tom Rogers says the number of postal votes could be a key factor in whether the result of the Voice referendum is known on the night.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

“If you think:you know what,we’ll hire the top floor[of a hotel] because we’ll know the result and spend many millions of dollars on this party,you may be disappointed,” Rogers said.

Ballot papers lodged at polling booths on the day,as well as a significant number of pre-poll votes – those lodged at early voting centres from two weeks before polling day – are counted on polling night while postal votes are counted on subsequent days,with the AEC allowing up to 13 days for their return.

“It could well be that there is not a result on the night depending on how close that result is and how many people voted by postal,” Rogers said.

At the 2022 federal election,more than half of Australian voters did not vote in person on the day,with postal votes comprising 14.3 per cent of all votes,up from about 8 per cent across the three previous elections – an increase partly attributed to COVID-19.

On polling night,the AEC’s tally room website will record the incoming results by the national count and the state-by-state result,as well as a seat and booth level count. The number of eligible voters enrolled is sitting at 97.2 per cent,while Indigenous enrolment is at an estimated 84.5 per cent.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has not yet set the date for the referendum,which will be held between October and December,withOctober 14 among the preferred dates.

The AEC has also launched a disinformation register as part of its efforts to combat falsehoods about the electoral process that are already circulating,as well as working with social media companies to take down mistruths and conspiracy theories.

“If we’ve got something that we can prove is absolutely mad,tinfoil hat-wearing,bonkers conspiracy theory,quite often it’s better to put that on the disinformation register than go through the fight and having it removed and further fuelling the conspiracy theory,” Rogers said.

One enduring conspiracy theory encountered by the AEC relates to fraud claims and electronic Dominion voting machines,which are not used in Australian elections.

Another falsehood relates to the double majority required for a successful referendum – which requires a national majority of all Australian voters and a majority in four of the six states. False claims are circulating that people living in the Northern Territory and ACT don’t get a vote,when in fact the votes of territorians count towards the national vote,but the ACT and NT are not included in the state count.

The AEC is also responsible for distributing an officialYes/No booklet to 12.5 million Australian households at least 14 days before the vote. The booklet will spell out the arguments for the Yes and No cases comprising up to 2000 words each,with the content determined by politicians backing the respective sides,not the AEC.

Rogers said the AEC had already begun informing Yes and No campaigners of their financial reporting obligations,in line with changes to the referendum laws earlier this year that created a donations’ disclosure regime mirroring that which exists for federal elections.

However,the disclosure showing which individuals and organisations donated to the Yes and No camps will not be published by the AEC until 24 weeks after voting day.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news,views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weeklyInside Politics newsletter here.

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