But this did not deliver a significant gain for Dutton. Asked about the opposition leader,31 per cent said he was doing a good job and 44 per cent said he was doing a poor job,producing a net rating of minus 13 points,compared to minus 15 points one month ago.
The survey of 1603 eligible voters was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday after two weeks of intense dispute in federal parliament over the Voice,withDutton challenging Albanese to declare if he wanted the proposed body to clear the way for a treaty with First Australians.
The survey has a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points,which means the fall in personal approval for Albanese,the shift on preferred prime minister and the increase in the Coalition primary vote are outside this margin.
“We’ve seen support for the Voice drop substantially over the last year,and up to now Labor’s vote has been largely unaffected,” Resolve director Jim Reed said.
“That’s created a growing tension between people voting No and at the same time supporting Labor,but now that stretched elastic band looks to have snapped back so that there is a political dimension and price to the referendum campaign.”
The survey allows respondents to offer unprompted remarks on any topic,with many naming the Voice as an issue.
“The comments we collect about people’s reasons for reconsidering their vote choice,and on their opinions of the prime minister,are almost exclusively about the Voice now,” Reed said.
“They either comment on what they see as the mishandling of the campaign,the need for a Voice,the issue causing division or simply being a distraction,but often they directly link this to Albanese’s judgment and competence.”
Asked which party and leader were focused on the right issues,32 per cent named Labor and Albanese,while 21 per cent named the Coalition and Dutton. The government has a lead of 11 points on this question,but the lead has narrowed from 18 points last month and 25 points in January.
Advocates for the Yes campaign have said their internal polling shows they can win the referendum because many voters are “soft” or undecided in their views for either side. Former prime minister Tony Abbott opposes the Voice but said last month the Yes side could win with a well-funded campaign in the final weeks.
The Resolve Political Monitor tells respondents the proposed change to the Constitution in the exact wording set out by the government in the Constitution Alteration (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice) Act. The first question gives voters the option to be undecided and the second allows only a “yes or no” response akin to the referendum.
This means respondents are presented with the full wording of the change to the Constitution,including the recognition of First Australians,the reference to executive government and the power of the parliament to make laws regarding the Voice.
On the first question,45 per cent were against,37 per cent were in favour and 18 per cent were undecided.
On the second question,this changed to 54 per cent against and 46 per cent in favour.
Resolve combined the results for July and August,with 3213 responses in total,to generate a larger sample size and estimate support for the Voice in each state. This showed support was 51 per cent in Victoria,46 per cent in NSW,41 per cent in Queensland,44 per cent in Western Australia,46 per cent in South Australia and 55 per cent in Tasmania. The margin of error is higher for state results.