Australian leaders grappled with a scenario that would have seen only 30 per cent of people who needed intensive care for COVID-19 given a bed before implementing tough social distancing measures to curb the spread of the disease.
The highly anticipated Doherty Institute modelling,which was delivered to national cabinet as case numbers began to rise in Australia earlier this year,shows under an unmitigated worst case scenario up to 90 per cent of the Australian population could have been infected. In that scenario only 15 per cent of those who needed intensive care would have been admitted.
"This is a horrendous scenario,"Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said."A daily demand for new intensive care beds of 35,000-plus."
Shutting the borders,quarantine and self-isolation measures slashed these forecasts. The Australian modelling of international infection rates released by the national cabinet on Tuesday shows the first stage of flattening the curve throughout February doubled the intensive care access forecasts to 30 per cent.
As the pandemic grew throughout March,the government implemented harsher social distancing measures including limits on public gatherings,bars,restaurants and restrictions on non-essential activities.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the modelling"was the full complement"of what was available to the national cabinet,but it could not predict the outcome of social distancing measures already taken.
"It does not model the Australian response,"he said.
There are currently 93 coronavirus patients in intensive care in Australian hospitals,with 36 on life-saving ventilators. There have been 46 fatalities. 5896 Australians have been infected.