“It is a genuine dilemma for countries who have worked so hard to keep their virus transmission low,to keep their death rates low,” he said,responding to a question fromThe Sydney Morning HeraldandThe Age.
“It is tough for countries to continue to keep low incidence in the context of so much community transmission in other countries,that is a very tough thing.
“So it is a difficult decision now for many countries who’ve managed to keep their very low or zero-COVID strategies in place for so long to open up again,with the probability that disease will be re-imported from other countries in which the disease is not under control.”
Ryan said that this scenario would require high-level surveillance and a “very switched on population” but that ultimately the solution laid with vaccines.
“High levels of vaccination coverage are the way out of this pandemic,” he said.
“Right now it’s not 100 per cent clear from the data where the figure of vaccine coverage should be in order to fully affect the transmission. But it’s certainly north of 80 per cent coverage to be in a position where you could be significantly affecting the risk of imported cases,potentially generating secondary cases or causing a cluster or an outbreak,” he said.