With the budget delivered the federal election must be called within a fortnight and,at the latest,it will be run and done within 52 days.
Time is rapidly running out for a government trailing badly in the polls and the task Scott Morrison faces is neatly summed in a mnemonic sequence recited by a shadow minister:one,five,seven. Lose one seat to Labor and the Coalition falls into minority,lose five and Labor wins the parliamentary bargain for power,lose seven and Labor governs in majority.
Morrison is tempting the fates in his quest for a second miracle victory. His last best hopes are that the budget is well received and that his mistake-prone Coalition runs a flawless,highly targeted marginal seat campaign. It will have to battle on two fronts,against Labor,the Greens and independents on the left and One Nation and the billionaire-bankrolled United Australia eroding its primary vote on the right.
So,Anthony Albanese seems well-placed to win but,as ever,nothing is settled until it is done.
All elections matter but this one comes at a historic inflection point. Australia faces a world that is far more dangerous and unpredictable than at any time since the Second World War. We must be prepared for a fight between autocrats and democracies that might run decades and see the world again divide into spheres of influence. That preparation must include taking all necessary steps to stopChina from building a military base in the South Pacific.
Such a consequential time demands an election that paints big pictures and debates the different paths we might follow to hold our freedom.