“You don’t stumble over 11 wins in a row.”
So much of the Pies’ rise up the AFL ladder defies explanation. Last week against Melbourne,they lost almost all the key statistics but found a way to get over the line. Theyshould be a middle-of-the-road team,but instead they play like one that truly believes anything is possible,and so it is. Six times this season,they have trailed at three-quarter-time and won.
Leigh Matthews called it a “freakish set of circumstances” on 3AW radio last week. “They have won 11 straight,fantastic,but they keep winning by a goal or so,” he said. “So,I am kind of torn between,is that really good[or bad]?”
For whatever it’s worth,the numbers also say they might have come to the end of the road. Sydney are statistically the better team,andshould win on Sunday. They tackle more,they have more of the ball,they use it better,and they score more (from all sources – intercepts,stoppages and centre bounces). At home,they’ve won eight of 10 games this year.
They’ve also put their early-season inconsistencies to bed by notching five near-faultless wins in a row,which is the AFL’s best active streak behind the top two teams,Geelong and Collingwood (both 11). Of those Collingwood wins,only four have come against teams currently in the top eight:Fremantle,Carlton,and Melbourne,twice.
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“I certainly think the Swans offer a different proposition,” said former Swans star and now Triple M broadcaster Jude Bolton. “Their kicking efficiency is No.1 on differential,in terms of effective kicks,but they limit your uncontested[ball],the Swans – they’re quite miserly in that sense. They’ll be looking to put the squeeze on fairly early. How Collingwood contend with that is going to be interesting.”
Former Collingwood assistant coach Brenton Sanderson laid out a strong case for Sydney on SEN,arguing that their strengths match up with the Pies’ weaknesses. If the Swans can restrict Collingwood’s marking in attack,maintain high pressure in their own forward line and keep their tall attacking targets isolated from one another,he sees them snapping the streak on Sunday.
“You have to acknowledge what they’re good at. But there are some areas that Collingwood are not good at. And that’s stoppage and contest at the moment,” Sanderson said.
“You’ve got a chance to get yards off of Collingwood,you’ve got the opportunity to get the ball going your way from contest and clearance. What do the Swans do really well? They’re No.2 in the competition over the whole season from preventing opposition marks. When Collingwood lose,they don’t take marks. That’s in[Sydney’s] wheelhouse. It’s perfect.”
As impressive as the Pies’ self-belief is,they also don’t have a monopoly on that quality,which seems to be at an all-time high around Moore Park.
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“We can match up against anybody,” Rowbottom said.
“Each week,we say if our pressure and contested ball is higher than the opposition,our stats line up,and we win the majority of those games. So if we can do that again this week,hopefully we’ll be alright.”
Rowbottom acknowledged that Sunday will be,for him and many of his teammates,the biggest game of their lives,let alone this season – a big crowd of over 40,000,a well-supported opponent on such a high,and an enormous prize up for grabs for the winner.
“I don’t think we’re one to shy away from it,either,” he said.
“[I was] speaking to one of the boys and probably bar the final last year,this[game] has probably got the most weight to it.
“They’re doing a lot right at the moment and riding a pretty significant wave. We’ve touched on some opportunities that we can exploit and go on to winning the game. Their second half last week against Melbourne,their pressure and intensity went to another level. The start of the game will be crucial in front of a packed house at the SCG to show them what our pressure can do.”
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